Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM.O) - **Industry**: Online Travel Agency (OTA) - **Market Cap**: US$36,956 million - **Current Stock Price**: US$53.66 - **Price Target**: US$75.00, revised from US$87.00 Key Points Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: TCOM reported strong revenue growth with a 4Q25 revenue beat and guidance for 1Q26 revenue growth of 12-17% [2][5] - **Booking Trends**: CNY domestic hotel bookings are growing at double-digit rates, with outbound travel also posting double-digit growth. QTD bookings are up 60% [2][3] - **Segment Performance**: - Hotel and packaged tours are growing in the high teens YoY - Corporate travel is expanding with a focus on customer base expansion - Transportation growth is in the 8-13% range [2] Operational Insights - **International Business**: International business accounted for ~40% of total revenue in 2025, up from 35% in 2024, indicating a strong trajectory towards a mid-term target of 50% [3] - **AI Development**: Management views AI as a catalyst for OTA businesses, emphasizing that TCOM's proprietary data and service capabilities mitigate potential threats from AI booking routing [4] Regulatory Environment - **Regulatory Uncertainty**: No updates on the regulatory front, but management expects business operations to remain intact despite ongoing investigations [5] - **WACC Increase**: The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumption was increased from 10.5% to 11.2% due to higher equity risk premiums related to regulatory concerns [5][11] Earnings Estimates - **EPS Adjustments**: 2026/27 EPS estimates were cut by 3-4% due to higher operating expenses, while revenue forecasts were raised by 1% [5][10] - **Operating Profit Margin**: Guidance for operating profit margin (OPM) is set at 28% for 1Q26, slightly lower due to a mix shift towards trip.com [2] Market Positioning - **Growth Engines**: TCOM is positioned to benefit from multiple growth engines, including domestic travel, outbound travel, and international expansion [22] - **Share Repurchase Program**: A US$5 billion share repurchase program was announced, representing over 10% of the market cap at the time of announcement [22] Risks and Considerations - **Market Competition**: Rising competition from other domestic players like Tongcheng Travel and Meituan poses a risk to market share [34] - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Potential macroeconomic slowdown and FX headwinds could impact travel demand [34] Valuation Metrics - **P/E Ratios**: The new price target implies a P/E of 18x for 2026 and 16x for 2027 [5][28] - **DCF Valuation**: Key assumptions include a WACC of 11.2% and terminal growth of 3% [16] Conclusion - TCOM is navigating a complex regulatory environment while capitalizing on strong travel demand and international expansion. The company remains focused on leveraging AI technology and enhancing operational efficiencies to maintain its competitive edge in the OTA market.