Group 1: Hong Kong Property Market - The residential property market in Hong Kong is showing signs of recovery, with home prices increasing by 0.14% in August, reducing the year-to-date decline to 0.24% [2] - Cumulative price growth since April stands at 1.26%, with transaction volumes remaining above 5,000 for six consecutive months, totaling 5,291 units sold in August, a nearly 45% year-on-year increase [2] - Analysts forecast a 13% rise in residential transactions to 64,000 units this year, with property prices expected to increase between 3% and 5% [2] Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose by 1% to 26,113.71, driven by strong performance in the technology sector, with the Hang Seng Tech Index also gaining 1% [3] - Major technology firms such as Alibaba, Tencent, Trip.com, and NetEase experienced significant stock price increases, reflecting growing market confidence in a potential U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December [3] Group 3: Jardine Matheson Holdings - Jardine Matheson Holdings, a diversified conglomerate with operations in property, retail, hotels, and financial services, is facing challenges due to the ongoing economic downturn in Hong Kong [4] - The current economic environment is testing the historical stability of Jardine Matheson, highlighting the broader impact of the downturn on established market players [4] Group 4: Commodities Market - Silver (XAG/USD) reached a record high near $57.60, influenced by a Comex outage and expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut [5] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for silver is at 73.47, indicating overbought conditions that may lead to a period of consolidation before further gains [5] Group 5: British Pound - The British Pound (GBP/USD) remained steady around 1.3250 as traders assessed the implications of the UK's Autumn Budget, with limited downside movement expected due to anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts [7] - The UK budget relief and revised growth forecasts for 2025 could support the Pound, although lower growth is expected in 2026, leading to potential tax hikes to address public finance shortfalls [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates by a quarter point in the upcoming meeting, with potential cuts in the following two meetings as well, according to the October CNBC Fed Survey [1]. Group 1: Survey Insights - Among the 38 survey respondents, there are concerns regarding the lack of data from the government shutdown, the artificial intelligence bubble, persistent inflation, and the influence of politics on the Fed's decisions [2]. - While 92% of respondents believe the Fed will cut rates in the upcoming meeting, only 66% believe it is the right decision, with a 38% minority opposing a rate cut [3]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Predictions - Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, noted that political factors are influencing the Fed's rate decisions, despite financial conditions being historically easy, GDP tracking at 3.5-4%, and inflation remaining above the Fed's target [4]. - Following the anticipated cut, 84% of respondents expect another reduction in December, and 54% foresee a third cut in January, with a total of 100 basis points of cuts forecasted for this year and next, bringing the funds rate down to 3.2% by the end of 2026 [4]. Group 3: Perspectives on Rate Cuts - Some experts argue against rate cuts, while others advocate for larger cuts due to increasing recession risks from labor market weakness and the government shutdown [5]. - Allen Sinai, chief economist and strategist at Decision Economics, emphasized that the ongoing productivity boom is a key factor in the economy's resilience and the strong equity market performance, which he does not consider a bubble [5].