Monetary Policy Uncertainty - The Federal Reserve (Fed) faces uncertainty due to the government shutdown disrupting data releases, complicating decisions on interest rate cuts [1] - The market anticipates the Fed to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting, but the meeting's outcome is less predictable than usual [1] - Disagreement exists within the Fed regarding the need for further interest rate cuts in December, with concerns split between the labor market and inflation [2] Inflation and Economic Data - September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates that inflation pressures are not as severe as previously feared, but remain above the Fed's 2% target [3] - Limited recent data makes it difficult to reconcile the debate on future interest rate cuts [3] Balance Sheet Management - The Fed is expected to discuss ending the runoff of its $6.6 trillion asset portfolio, which includes bonds and securities purchased during and after the pandemic [3][4] - The Fed has been gradually reducing its holdings from a peak of $9 trillion in 2022 [4] - Recent funding pressures in overnight lending markets suggest the Fed may halt the runoff [4] Future Leadership - A new Fed chair will be appointed in May 2026, raising questions about potential future aggressive interest rate cuts [5]