In my last article on the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF ( XLE ) in January, I argued for a potential bounce due to the breakout in oil prices. This bounce proved very short-lived, and oil prices haveI am a full-time investor and owner of Icon Economics - a macro research company focussed on providing contrarian investment ideas across FX, Equities, and Fixed Income based on Austrian economic theory. Formerly Head of Financial Markets at Fitch Solutions, I have 15 years of experience investing and analy ...

Core Insights - The iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU) has achieved over 50% total return since the last buy recommendation in late 2023 despite ongoing economic deterioration [1] Group 1: Performance Analysis - The ETF's significant return highlights its resilience in a challenging economic environment [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The analysis is provided by a full-time investor and owner of Icon Economics, a macro research company focused on contrarian investment ideas based on Austrian economic theory [1] - The analyst has 15 years of experience in investing and analyzing Asian and global markets, previously serving as Head of Financial Markets at Fitch Solutions [1]

Core Insights - The iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU) has achieved over 50% total return since the last buy recommendation in late 2023, despite ongoing economic challenges [1] Group 1: Performance Analysis - The ETF's significant return highlights its resilience in a deteriorating economic environment [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The analysis is provided by a full-time investor and owner of Icon Economics, a macro research company focused on contrarian investment ideas based on Austrian economic theory [1]

Core Insights - The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 77x, which is significantly higher than the reported PE ratio of 39x when considering record capital expenditure figures [1]. Group 1 - The reported PE ratio of MAGS is 39x, but the effective PE ratio, when accounting for capital expenditures, is much higher at 77x [1]. - The article highlights the potential discrepancy between reported earnings and actual market valuations due to high capital expenditures [1].

Core Insights - Profit margins among the Nasdaq 100 have been declining over the past decade, despite reported earnings suggesting an expansion in margins [1] - The apparent expansion in margins is misleading and primarily reflects reported depreciation expenses [1] Group 1: Profit Margins - The decline in profit margins for the Nasdaq 100 is a significant trend that investors may not fully recognize [1] - Reported earnings may give a false impression of margin growth due to accounting practices [1]

Core Insights - Gold is currently trading at over double its early-2023 levels, with a market capitalization exceeding USD 28 trillion [1] - The current gold price is approximately $4,250 per ounce, supported by above-ground gold stocks estimated at around 6.7 billion ounces [1] Market Analysis - The significant increase in gold prices reflects a broader trend in the commodities market, indicating strong investor interest and potential shifts in economic conditions [1] - The rise in gold prices may be influenced by macroeconomic factors, including inflation and currency fluctuations, which are critical for investors to monitor [1]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 has increased approximately 100% since its pre-COVID peak, with total returns of 115% when including dividend payments [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500's performance reflects a significant recovery and growth in the market post-COVID [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The analysis is provided by a macro research company, Icon Economics, which focuses on contrarian investment ideas based on Austrian economic theory [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential resurgence of safe-haven demand for long-term Treasuries, particularly the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT), amid volatility in the equity markets [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The author suggests that the current market conditions may lead to increased interest in long-term Treasuries as a protective investment strategy [1]. - The analysis is based on macroeconomic principles derived from Austrian economic theory, indicating a contrarian approach to investment ideas across various asset classes including FX, Equities, and Fixed Income [1]. Group 2: Author's Background - The author has 15 years of experience in investing and analyzing both Asian and Global markets, previously serving as the Head of Financial Markets at Fitch Solutions [1]. - The author currently operates Icon Economics, a macro research company focused on providing unique investment insights [1].