汽车行业政策专家交流以旧换新 20251228 摘要 2025 年消费品以旧换新总额预计 3,000 亿，2026 年降至 2,500 亿， 涵盖汽车、家电、家装和数码产品。汽车以旧换新补贴建议按金额的 8%~12%补贴，或最有可能 10%，最高封顶 2 万元，且要求车辆持有 一年以上。 报废更新补贴方面，新能源车补贴比例建议为 8%~12%，燃油车 5%~10%。置换补贴从去年的 1.3 万-1.5 万调整为 1 万-1.2 万，并要 求地方政府均衡使用资金。目前没有单独针对燃油车的明确政策，但会 根据上半年情况储备相关政策。 旧车报废政策仍按 2024 年标准执行，置换政策要求车辆持有一年以上。 新车购买和上牌区域必须一致，以避免追逐补贴的情况。预计新能源车 的补贴比例会更高，10 万元以下低价位车型占比将显著增加。 2026 年燃油车报废补贴比例可能从 8%降至 5%，上限仍为 15,000 元。 新能源车的报废补贴比例预计为 10%。中央政府仍准备资金支持地方， 但力度不如去年，地方政府承担的比例将略高于今年。 Q&A 以旧换新政策预计何时出台？目前政策的动态如何？ 最快可能在上周五发布，但目前来看， ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In July 1-27, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.445 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9%, but a month-on-month decrease of 19% [1][4] - Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 12.346 million units, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [1][4] - Wholesale of passenger cars during the same period was 1.505 million units, up 17% year-on-year but down 25% month-on-month [1][7] Group 2: New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - Retail sales of NEVs from July 1-27 totaled 789,000 units, a 15% year-on-year increase, with a penetration rate of 54.6% [1][4] - Cumulative NEV retail sales for the year reached 6.258 million units, a 31% increase year-on-year [1][4] - NEV wholesale during the same period was 816,000 units, also up 17% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 54.2% [1][4] Group 3: Monthly Trends - Daily average retail sales for the first week of July were 40,000 units, a 1% increase year-on-year but a 6% decrease month-on-month [3] - The second week saw daily average sales of 48,000 units, up 11% year-on-year but down 4% month-on-month [3] - The third week recorded 58,000 units daily, a 17% year-on-year increase but a 20% decrease month-on-month [4] Group 4: Economic Context - The domestic economic situation has improved, particularly with recent export recovery stabilizing domestic demand [4] - The automotive market is expected to enter a consolidation phase due to inventory reduction pressures in the fuel vehicle segment [4][5] - The market's monthly patterns are becoming more stable, with July historically showing a higher retail share in recent years compared to earlier periods [4] Group 5: Global Market Insights - In the first half of 2025, China accounted for 68% of the global NEV market share, with a significant increase in its share of the global pure electric vehicle market [8][9] - The global automotive market saw a total of 46.32 million units sold in the first half of 2025, with China contributing 15.65 million units, reflecting an 11% growth [10][11] - The automotive industry in China is experiencing a gradual recovery in global market share, reaching 36% by June 2025 [10]