Core Insights - The automotive market in 2025 was characterized by a heightened focus on affordability due to rising ownership costs, tariff concerns, and a shortage of late-model used vehicles, setting the stage for 2026 [1][2] Market Trends - In 2025, consumers actively pursued affordability, influencing shopping behavior and automotive supply trends, driven by concerns over tariff costs and the expiration of the EV tax credit [2] - Key areas of value for buyers included hybrids, smaller body styles, and budget-friendly older models, with the used market expected to continue catering to budget-conscious shoppers in 2026 [3] Vehicle Performance - Smaller sedans, compact crossovers, and efficient models were the fastest-selling used vehicles, with models like the Buick LeSabre and Chevrolet Cobalt selling in approximately 25 to 30 days compared to the average of 40 days for used vehicles [4] - Following the expiration of EV tax credits, new EV retail sales dropped by 66% in the two months after the deadline compared to the two months prior, while hybrid demand increased, with new inventory rising nearly 18% year-over-year and retail sales growing by 33% [4] Ownership Costs - Rising vehicle ownership costs, including insurance, loan payments, and maintenance, have pressured consumer budgets, with the total cost of ownership for used vehicles increasing by 36% and for new models by 29% compared to 2019 [5] - The fastest-selling new vehicles in 2025 included models like the Hyundai Palisade Hybrid and Toyota's Grand Highlander Hybrid, selling in under 20 days on average [5] Future Outlook - The pricing landscape for 2026 models is expected to play a significant role in average new car pricing trends, with higher MSRPs partially offset by softer pricing and incentives on remaining 2025 models [6] - The market is anticipated to see improved availability of late-model used vehicles as the chip shortage eases, providing more "like-new" options for consumers [6] - 2026 will offer insights into EV demand without the influence of tax credits, with affordability remaining a key driver for consumers as they cross-shop across various vehicle types [7]

Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced a strong start in 2025, with new-vehicle sales increasing by 4.8% year over year in the first quarter, and March sales marked the sixth-highest in nearly 50 years, driven by pre-tariff buying, seasonal tax refunds, and automaker incentives [3][5]. Market Dynamics - Affordability concerns are rising as vehicles priced under $30,000 now represent only 14% of new-vehicle inventory, a significant drop from 38% during the 2019-21 period, indicating a reduced availability of budget-friendly models [3][4]. - The majority of sub-$30K vehicles (nearly 90%) are assembled outside the U.S., making them vulnerable to price hikes or production cuts due to shifting trade policies [4]. Inventory and Pricing - Inventory levels have improved, with new-car supply up 9% year over year, and vehicles are spending an average of 78 days on dealer lots, aligning with pre-pandemic norms [6]. - The average new-car price has remained around $49,000 for the past 18 months, which is still 30% higher than in Q1 2019, and the introduction of tariffs is expected to push prices higher [6]. Financing Conditions - Despite a 100 basis point cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve between September and December 2024, auto-loan APRs increased by 19 basis points year over year in Q1, as lenders tightened credit terms amid market uncertainty, adding to affordability challenges for buyers [7][8].