Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced a strong start in 2025, with new-vehicle sales increasing by 4.8% year over year in the first quarter, and March sales marked the sixth-highest in nearly 50 years, driven by pre-tariff buying, seasonal tax refunds, and automaker incentives [3][5]. Market Dynamics - Affordability concerns are rising as vehicles priced under $30,000 now represent only 14% of new-vehicle inventory, a significant drop from 38% during the 2019-21 period, indicating a reduced availability of budget-friendly models [3][4]. - The majority of sub-$30K vehicles (nearly 90%) are assembled outside the U.S., making them vulnerable to price hikes or production cuts due to shifting trade policies [4]. Inventory and Pricing - Inventory levels have improved, with new-car supply up 9% year over year, and vehicles are spending an average of 78 days on dealer lots, aligning with pre-pandemic norms [6]. - The average new-car price has remained around $49,000 for the past 18 months, which is still 30% higher than in Q1 2019, and the introduction of tariffs is expected to push prices higher [6]. Financing Conditions - Despite a 100 basis point cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve between September and December 2024, auto-loan APRs increased by 19 basis points year over year in Q1, as lenders tightened credit terms amid market uncertainty, adding to affordability challenges for buyers [7][8].