Core Viewpoint - Uber Technologies (UBER) is experiencing significant volatility as the mobility sector undergoes a structural shift, leading to uncertainty among investors regarding the impact of autonomous vehicle (AV) technology on the company's future [1] Group 1: Company Analysis - Uber is perceived as a "battleground" stock, indicating intense competition and differing opinions on its future prospects [1] - The advancement of AV technology is seen as both a potential threat and an opportunity for Uber, creating a complex investment landscape [1] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The investment approach focuses on a long-term horizon of 5-10 years, emphasizing investment in companies with strong competitive advantages and durable business models [1] - There is a strategy to initiate smaller positions in emerging companies that are positioned to lead their industries, reflecting a proactive investment stance [1]

Core Viewpoint - BofA Securities analyst Justin Post maintains a Buy rating on Uber Technologies and raises the price target from $97 to $115, indicating strong confidence in Uber's growth potential for 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Projections and Earnings - Post estimates that U.S.-based Uber drivers will generate approximately $42 billion in earnings this year [4] - Projected total tips for Uber drivers in 2025 could reach around $5.7 billion, representing 14% of driver earnings, based on an average tip rate of 7% on estimated $88 billion in U.S. gross bookings [4] - Fiscal 2025 sales are projected at $50.7 billion with an EPS of $3.04 [6] Group 2: Autonomous Vehicle (AV) Developments - Optimism about Uber's autonomous vehicle position is growing due to its global partnerships, which have crossed 20, and its ability to scale AVs with Waymo [2] - Moove, an Uber-backed AV fleet manager, is raising $1.2 billion to support its partnership with Waymo, focusing initially on Phoenix and Miami [5] - The development of multiple AV suppliers coexisting long-term is reinforced by the successful funding of Moove, which may encourage other OEMs to invest in Level 4 automation [6] Group 3: Tax Implications for Drivers - The "No Tax on Tips" clause in the Big Beautiful Bill extends benefits to gig workers, including Uber drivers, allowing for federal income tax savings with a maximum deduction of $25,000 [3] - An estimated average federal tax rate of 18% implies about $1 billion in potential tax savings for drivers, equating to a 2.5% boost in driver pay [4] - The tax break is expected to modestly increase driver supply, indirectly supporting Uber's take rate [5]