Summary of BeOne Medicines Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: BeOne Medicines (ONC/688235.SS) - **Industry**: Oncology, specifically focused on hematology and solid tumors - **Key Products**: Sonrotoclax (BCL2 inhibitor), Brukinsa, Tevimbra - **Location**: Domiciled in Switzerland Key Points from the Conference Call Approval and Market Entry - **Sonrotoclax Approval**: Approved in China for late-line Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (CLL) and Mantle Cell Lymphoma (MCL) on January 5th, 2025, marking its first approval globally [1] - **NDA Review Duration**: The approval process took only eight months, which is considered quick compared to the typical 12-18 months for new drug approvals [1] - **Unmet Need**: The rapid approval reflects a significant unmet need for BCL2 inhibitors in China, as venetoclax was only approved for Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) [1] Market Dynamics and Sales Potential - **Sales Ramp-Up**: Interest in tracking the sales ramp-up of venetoclax and lisaftoclax, along with feedback from physicians and patients regarding the new BCL2 inhibitors [2] - **Differentiation Factors**: - **Tolerability**: Both new drugs showed lower rates of neutropenia and discontinuation compared to venetoclax, with sonrotoclax showing a lower rate than lisaftoclax [2] - **Dose Ramp-Up**: Lisaftoclax employs a 4-6 days daily dose ramp-up, while sonrotoclax and venetoclax use a weekly ramp-up [2] Financial Projections and Valuation - **Earnings Adjustment**: FY2025-2027 earnings per share (EPS) estimates adjusted from US$3.78/US$6.26/US$6.64 to US$3.59/US$4.65/US$4.46 [6] - **Increased Probability of Success (POS)**: Blended POS increased from 76% to 95% due to the approval of sonrotoclax [6] - **Target Prices**: Updated 12-month target prices to US$385.79 for ONC and Rmb345.86 for A-share, down from US$408.79 and Rmb366.48 respectively [6] Company Positioning and Risks - **Growth Potential**: BeOne Medicines is well-positioned for growth with a strong internal clinical development team and a focus on oncology [7] - **Key Risks**: - Uncertainties in R&D and regulatory approvals, especially for early-stage solid tumor products - Competition from BTK and PD-1 inhibitors - Development risks for clinical-stage assets - Market access bottlenecks [7][10] Conclusion - **Investment Rating**: Maintained a Buy rating on BeOne Medicines, indicating confidence in its growth potential and market positioning despite broader macroeconomic concerns [7]