Core Insights - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has surpassed the 100 mark, its highest level since August, raising concerns about its impact on risk assets, including Bitcoin [1][2] - Analysts are divided on whether this is a short-term technical rebound or the start of a new liquidity-tightening cycle that could negatively affect the crypto market [1][4] DXY Performance - The DXY has surged past the 100 threshold, marking a significant recovery after a period of weakness since Q3 [2] - A golden cross pattern is forming on the daily chart of DXY, indicating a potential sustained bullish trend [3] Market Sentiment - The strengthening dollar is exerting psychological pressure on risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies [6] - The current DXY movement is seen as a critical test for the ongoing rally in the crypto market [4] BTC-DXY Correlation - Historically, Bitcoin has shown a negative correlation with the DXY; as the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin tends to decline [7] - From September onward, DXY rose from 98 to nearly 99.7, while Bitcoin dropped over 12% [8] Future Outlook - The 100 level on the DXY chart is critical; a rebound from this level previously led to Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs [9] - Bitcoin's next major movement is likely dependent on DXY's trajectory; a break above 101 could lead to bearish conditions for Bitcoin, while failure to hold the 100 zone might indicate a short-term relief rally for crypto markets [10]