Behind - the - meter (BTM) power solutions
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Liberty Energy Inc. (LBRT): A Bull Case Theory
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-18 15:37
Core Thesis - Liberty Energy Inc. is transitioning from a cyclical oil services company to a significant player in behind-the-meter power solutions, targeting large, continuous energy demands like data centers [2][3] Business Segments - The Power platform offers a comprehensive "power-as-a-service" solution, which includes natural-gas genset procurement, installation, fuel logistics, 24/7 monitoring, and maintenance under multi-year contracts, leveraging decades of operational experience and strategic vendor relationships [4] - The core oil services business remains strong, characterized by capital discipline and robust return on invested capital (ROIC), providing a stable cash flow foundation as the Power business expands [5] Market Valuation - The market currently undervalues Liberty Energy, treating it primarily as a cyclical oil services business, which results in a stock price below its 2024 highs [3] - Valuation analysis suggests a separation of the two business segments, with the Power platform valued at 10x 2027 EBITDA and the core business at 6x through-cycle EBITDA, leading to a year-end 2027 target price of over $33, indicating a potential 2x return [5] Growth Catalysts - Key catalysts for growth include the signing of initial power contracts, which could lead to a significant stock rerating, while manageable risks involve potential declines in oil prices and execution challenges in securing power capacity contracts [5]