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2025 Turkey of the Year — Nothing is Guaranteed
Stockgumshoe· 2025-11-25 14:55
Core Points - The article discusses the annual "Turkey of the Year" award, which is given to the worst-performing stock teaser pitch over the past year, focusing on overhyped or misleading stock recommendations [3][4][5] - This year, two main candidates for the award are Iovance (IOVA) and Sable Offshore (SOC), both of which have seen significant declines in stock value [6][13] Summary of Iovance (IOVA) - Iovance was pitched as a takeover target and had some scientific achievements, including an FDA-approved treatment for solid tumors, but has struggled with scalability and profitability [6][9] - The stock was initially teased at $10.44 and closed at $2.25, representing a loss of approximately 78%, and a relative loss of about 95% compared to the S&P 500, which gained roughly 20% during the same period [9][10] - The company projected $1 billion in annual sales for its treatment but is now expected to generate closer to $250 million this year, with declining gross profit margins [10][12] Summary of Sable Offshore (SOC) - Sable Offshore was promoted based on CEO James Flores' connections to the Trump administration, which were expected to facilitate permits for oil production at the Santa Ynez oil field [13][14] - The stock was pitched at $24.19 and closed at $4.47, marking an approximate 80% drop, with a relative loss of about 98% compared to the S&P 500 [19][20] - The company has faced ongoing legal and permitting challenges, despite announcing a restart of production in May 2025, and is currently in a financially precarious position [15][21] Lessons Learned - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the scalability and business viability of biotech companies, as well as the risks associated with politically motivated investments in energy projects [10][23] - It highlights the need for a solid rationale beyond political connections when investing in stocks, especially in sectors facing local opposition [23][25]