Bitcoin price action cooled after failing to secure a sustained breakout above $100,000 in January. The rejection triggered short-term profit-taking and pushed BTC into a consolidation phase.  Since then, price behavior has shifted toward stabilization rather than aggressive selling. On-chain and macro indicators now suggest improving conditions. Investor positioning points to a cautiously bullish setup for February. Bitcoin Profit Booking Highlights a Pattern A meaningful transition into a sustained Bi ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite significant accumulation by Bitcoin ETFs and DATs, Bitcoin's price has not attracted the same level of retail participation as in previous cycles [1] Short-Term Outlook - Bitcoin is likely to face challenges in recovery due to declining stablecoin reserves, with capital outflows reaching nearly $1.9 billion in just 30 days [2] - Major exchanges, particularly Binance, show a significant drop in ERC-20 stablecoin reserves, indicating that retail investors are exiting the market [3] - The lack of investor interest in immediate market exposure is evident as some investors withdraw their stablecoins instead of keeping them on exchanges [4] Medium-Term Outlook - On-chain capital inflows into Bitcoin are gradually weakening, with the realized cap stalling after approximately 2.5 years of growth [5] - The PnL Index Signal, which tracks profit and loss based on wallet cost basis, has been moving sideways since early 2025 and is trending downward, indicating increasing losses [6] - A sentiment recovery may take a few months according to industry analysis [6] Long-Term Outlook - Long-term perspectives remain optimistic, with analysts like Peter Brandt maintaining a bullish stance on Bitcoin [7] - Brandt notes that Bitcoin has experienced five logarithmic parabolic advances over the past 15 years, with declines of at least 80% following each cycle, suggesting the current cycle is not yet over [7] - While no specific timing for a potential bottom was provided, Brandt projects that the next bull market peak could occur in September 2029 [8]

Core Insights - Bitcoin ETFs currently hold over 1.3 million coins, which accounts for approximately 6% of all mined Bitcoin [1] Group 1 - The total amount of Bitcoin held by ETFs has reached more than 1.3 million coins [1] - This holding represents around 6% of the total Bitcoin that has been mined to date [1]

Market Prediction - Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by Q1 2026 [1]

Market Prediction - DuelbitsPredict 新市场预测：比特币在 2025 年 12 月 19 日前有 61% 的概率重回 9 万美元 [1] Cryptocurrency - 市场关注比特币价格预测，目标价位为 9 万美元 [1]

Macroeconomic Trends - The Fed is expanding its balance sheet, indicating a return to Quantitative Easing (QE) [1] Alternative Investments - Discussion around Bitcoin potentially reaching $150,000 [1] Financial Products - Introduction of the Trump Gold Card [1]

Market Prediction - Duelbits 预测比特币在 2027 年 1 月 1 日前达到 15 万美元的可能性为 40% [1] Cryptocurrency - 讨论比特币牛市是否降温或升温 [1]

Market Prediction - Polymarket estimates a 48% probability that Bitcoin will reach $1 million before the release of GTA 6 [1]

Market Forecast - Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin to reach $500,000 by 2028 [1] Investment Opportunity - The report suggests enjoying cheap Bitcoin while it is available [1]

Market Trend - BlackRock CEO Larry Fink predicts Bitcoin could reach $700,000 [1]