Market Overview - Bitcoin has entered a bear market, with signs of "capitulation" as it fell below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025, dropping to just over $77,000 before a slight recovery to near $79,000 [1][2]. Market Sentiment - Analysts indicate that the market has shifted to a bearish regime, with significant selling pressure and a lack of new capital inflow, suggesting that the current environment does not support a bull market [2][4]. - Some analysts predict further declines, with potential price targets as low as $75,000 or even $10,000, while others urge caution, suggesting that the bear market narrative may be premature [3][4]. Historical Context - Price corrections of 35%-40% are historically common during Bitcoin bull runs, with the current drop from $75,000 to $80,000 representing a 37% to 40% correction, which could be seen as a buying opportunity [5]. External Influences - Recent performance issues for Bitcoin have been linked to President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair, which negatively impacted precious metals prices. However, some analysts believe that Warsh's leadership would not lead to aggressive interest rate cuts [6][7].

Core Insights - A new report from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin holders are experiencing losses for the first time since October 2023, with a total of 69,000 Bitcoins, valued at $6.1 billion, lost since December [1][4]. Market Trends - Bitcoin's price has recently dropped to $89,195, which is nearly 30% lower than its October peak of $126,080, and represents a 16% decline over the past year [2]. - The current market pattern resembles the transition from bull to bear observed in 2021-2022, where realized profits peaked in January 2021 before entering a bear market [2]. Profit Realization - CryptoQuant reports a significant shift in investor behavior, with annual net realized profits decreasing from 4.4 million Bitcoins in October to 2.5 million Bitcoins currently, indicating a trend towards loss realization [4]. - This decline in realized profits is comparable to the situation in March 2022, which preceded a severe bear market [4]. Market Sentiment - Experts are divided on Bitcoin's future, with some suggesting that the traditional four-year cycle may be broken, while others see potential for a rally due to factors like lower interest rates and increased institutional involvement [3][6]. - Heavy selling by large holders, or "whales," has previously exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin's price, but recent reports indicate that these large holders have slowed their selling activity [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is currently in the early stages of a bear market, with expectations of continued price declines through 2026 due to weakening demand [1][2][3] Market Indicators - On-chain and market metrics confirm that Bitcoin entered a bear market as early as November 2025, with expectations for prices to trend downwards in the coming months [2][3] - The structural contraction in Bitcoin demand has been tracked through the flow of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have shifted from being net buyers to net sellers since early November [4][5] Demand Dynamics - Between 2024 and 2025, Bitcoin demand was bolstered by the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which led to significant institutional inflows [4] - Regulatory support under the Trump administration further enhanced risk appetite for Bitcoin investments [5] Selling Pressure - The rush of companies adopting Bitcoin as a treasury asset has diminished, with only MicroStrategy continuing to buy, while others have halted purchases [6][7] - There is an increasing risk of forced selling among companies holding Bitcoin if prices continue to decline [7]

Market Trends & Strategy - CryptoQuant indicates Strategy's new $14.4 亿 (1.44 billion) 美元储备表明该公司正为潜在的比特币熊市做准备 [1] - This signals a shift from Strategy's previous aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential for a Bitcoin correction in the short term versus a macro trend change that could lead to a bearish outlook in the medium to long term [1] Group 1 - The analysis focuses on the narratives that influence the Bitcoin market [1]

Market Analysis - Bitcoin crashed from six figures to the low 80K range, ETF inflows have stalled, DATs are wobbling, and altcoins are experiencing significant losses [1] - The discussion explores whether the current market situation is a true Bitcoin bear market or a brutal reset before the next upward movement [1] - True Market Mean is explained around 82K as a support level [1] - The analysis covers the potential death of altcoin season, the Zcash marketing pump, and the future of privacy coins [1] On-Chain Analysis - The discussion dives into realized cap, ETF cost bases, and OG whale distribution [1] - Key on-chain signals are examined to determine if the market is in a bear phase [1] - OG whale selling is contrasted with ETF demand, indicating a major rotation in the market [1] Future Outlook - The potential for institutional and sovereign buyers to enter the market by 2026 is considered [1] - The macro outlook into 2026 includes discussions on liquidity cycles and elections [1] - The conversation addresses the quantum-computing threat to Bitcoin, assessing whether it is realistic or overblown [1]

RT Jan van Eck (@JanvanEck3)TLDR:The bitcoin bear market is being driven by the onchain reality of the halving cycle (bearish for 2026), quantum-breaking-encryption concerns and the better privacy of Zcash.@vaneckpk said it best: dollar cost average into bear markets@vaneck_us ...

Market Analysis - The report addresses the question of whether the Bitcoin bear market has started [1] - The analysis aims to determine the current stage of the Bitcoin cycle [1] - The report utilizes charts to provide insights into the Bitcoin market [1]

Market Outlook - The bitcoin bear market is considered to be over as of October 2025 [1] - The industry anticipates market volatility in the coming months, emphasizing the importance of emotional control for investors [1]

Market Sentiment - Bitcoin bear markets have never started when the majority of retail investors ("plebes") are predicting a double top and a bear market [1] - The document emphasizes the absence of historical correlation between widespread bearish sentiment and the actual start of Bitcoin bear markets [1]