Core Insights - Bitcoin's price dynamics have shifted, with the traditional four-year halving cycle losing its significance as a market-moving event, particularly highlighted by the 2024 halving [1][3][4] - Institutional demand and liquidity have become the primary drivers of Bitcoin's price, overshadowing the effects of halving events [4][6] Group 1: Halving Cycle Analysis - The halving cycle, which historically led to significant price movements, is now considered "noise" with negligible impact on daily supply issuance [3] - The 2024 halving resulted in a reduction of inflation from 1.7% to 0.85%, but the absolute reduction is less than 1 percentage point, which is minor compared to ETF inflows of $1–2 billion weekly [3][4] - Historical halving events show a consistent 50% reduction in inflation rates, but the relevance of this cycle has diminished in the current market context [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a macro asset, influenced by broader liquidity and business cycles rather than just halving events [4] - Current market indicators, such as the Federal Reserve's pause and dollar weakness, suggest strong Bitcoin performance anticipated in 2026 [4] - Institutional liquidity and derivatives are reducing volatility, indicating a maturation of the asset class [4][6] Group 3: ETF Influence - Global Bitcoin ETFs now hold over 7% of the total supply, approximately 1.4 million BTC, indicating a significant institutional presence [6] - ETF investors are characterized as "sticky," representing long-term allocations rather than speculative trading, which contributes to market stability [6] - Corporate treasuries and sovereign buyers are also contributing to the permanent sequestration of Bitcoin, further solidifying its position as a macro asset [6]