Market Performance & Sentiment - Ethereum's performance this cycle may disappoint ETH holders due to a "Bitcoin maxi cycle" and lack of retail interest [1] - Bitcoin topped on apathy, similar to 2019, suggesting a lack of euphoria compared to 2021 or 2017 [2][5] Macroeconomic Factors - Ethereum's performance is heavily influenced by the macro economy, which it cannot control [3] - Macroeconomic uncertainty, such as rising unemployment, negatively impacts Ethereum's performance [4] Future Outlook - A return to looser monetary policy is needed for Ethereum to perform better [5] - A durable improvement in Ethereum's performance is not expected in the first half of 2026 [5] Risk Assessment - Ethereum is a riskier asset compared to stock market index funds [3]