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The Myth of Continuity | Pranav Bayari | TEDxNPSIS Singapore Youth
TEDx Talks· 2025-10-13 15:17
Black Swan Events & Market Fragility - Black swan events are rare, have catastrophic impact, and feel inevitable in hindsight [10] - These events occur not only in personal life but also in businesses, companies, and the stock market [11] - Algorithmic trading, while efficient, is trained on past data lacking black swan events, leading to unpredictable outcomes [17] - In 2025, algorithms are projected to conduct over 50% of global stock trades [19] - The common investor bears the brunt of algorithmic trading failures due to lack of resources and direct access [20][21] Algorithmic Trading & Market Dynamics - Algorithmic trading uses variables like stock price, revenue, and organizational changes to predict stock movement [15] - The fractal market hypothesis suggests the market is moved by various investors, including algorithms, creating continuous trading and chaos [22][23] - Algorithmic trading exploits short-term market fluctuations, outpacing human traders [23][24] Systemic Risk & Responsibility - Systems assume stability if nothing appears broken, creating fragility and susceptibility to shocks [26] - Decision-making is increasingly delegated to algorithms due to their speed and lack of emotion [27] - The lack of accountability in algorithmic trading means blame evaporates when systems fail [28] - Systems that outthink and outtrade humans cannot take responsibility, amplifying the impact of black swan events [28]