Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet on October 28-29, with significant attention from global investors regarding potential interest rate cuts [1] - Polymarket traders are indicating a 98% probability of a 25 basis points cut in the benchmark interest rate during this meeting [2][3] Market Predictions - Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 98% likelihood of a 25 basis points rate cut, with only 1% betting on a cut greater than 50 basis points and another 1% expecting no change [2] - Previous predictions on Polymarket have shown accuracy, as seen in the September meeting where a 91% chance of a 25 basis points cut was correctly forecasted [3] Cryptocurrency Market Reaction - Following the September 17 rate cut confirmation, major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ether, and XRP initially surged before experiencing a pullback [4] - Current trading values show Bitcoin at $115,406, Ethereum at $4,133.61, and XRP at $2.65, reflecting slight declines in their prices [5]

Core Insights - Polymarket is preparing to return to the U.S. market with a potential valuation of $10 billion, significantly up from its last known valuation of $1 billion in June [1][3][9] Company Developments - The company is in discussions to raise new capital that could more than triple its previous valuation [3] - Polymarket gained prominence by accurately predicting Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, which enhanced its reputation and user base [4] - In June, Polymarket was raising $200 million in a funding round led by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, but faced regulatory constraints that limited its growth [4] Regulatory Environment - In 2022, Polymarket exited the U.S. market following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) [5] - The acquisition of Florida-based derivatives exchange QCX in July allowed Polymarket to receive a no-action letter from the CFTC, providing relief from certain regulatory requirements [5] - The CFTC's letter is seen as a green light for Polymarket to operate in the U.S. [5] Competitive Landscape - The prediction market space is becoming increasingly competitive, with rival platform Kalshi reportedly closing in on a $5 billion funding round after raising $185 million earlier this year [5] - Kalshi's momentum increased following a 2024 court decision that allowed it to offer political-event contracts, giving it a regulatory advantage [6] - Both platforms have experienced a decline in user activity since the 2024 election cycle, but interest is reportedly picking up again [6] Market Engagement - The kickoff of the NFL season has reignited market engagement, with Kalshi processing $441 million in trading volume since Week 1 [7]