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Better Energy Stock: Diamondback Energy vs. Chevron
The Motley Foolยท 2025-07-20 05:41
Core Insights - The comparison between Diamondback Energy and Chevron highlights different investment profiles for oil and gas investors, with Chevron being more suitable for yield-focused investors and Diamondback offering greater upside potential with higher oil prices [1][11]. Company Analysis - Chevron's break-even oil price is approximately $30 per barrel, while Diamondback's is around $37 per barrel, giving Chevron an advantage in lower oil price environments [3][5]. - Diamondback, as a pure-play exploration and production company, employs hedging strategies to protect against oil price declines, with current hedges effective down to $55 per barrel [4][6]. - Chevron offers a dividend yield of 4.8%, which is secure down to $30 per barrel, while Diamondback's yield of 2.9% is safe down to $37 per barrel [5][11]. Financial Projections - Diamondback's management estimates adjusted free cash flow (FCF) for 2025 across various oil prices, aiming to return 50% of FCF to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks [7]. - At an oil price of $60 per barrel, Diamondback could potentially offer $5.20 in dividends, yielding 3.8%, and this could rise to $8.70 in dividends, yielding 6.4%, at $80 per barrel [8][9]. - The price of oil would need to be around $67 per barrel for Diamondback's dividend yield to match Chevron's current yield [10]. Investment Considerations - Dividend-focused investors may prefer Chevron due to its diversified operations and lower exposure to oil price volatility, while those seeking higher upside potential may favor Diamondback [11][14]. - Both companies present attractive options for passive income-seeking investors, with the possibility of holding both stocks to balance yield and growth potential [14].