New Zealand business confidence soared to a three-decade high in December and the mood of consumers also surged, adding to signs of further economic expansion in the fourth quarter and into 2026 https://t.co/9g6vgSh4Ib ...

German business confidence dipped in December, underscoring the challenges for Europe’s largest economy to overcome years of weakness https://t.co/4heLjo4o1C ...

Australian business confidence declined further in November ahead of the Reserve Bank’s final policy meeting of the year, when it is widely expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged https://t.co/dBAk716OLM ...

Business Confidence - German business confidence unexpectedly dipped in November [1] Economic Outlook - Fresh sign of the challenge to overcome stagnation [1] Government Policy - Government ramps up spending [1]

Anger at the government has seeped into measures of business confidence. Yet such surveys don’t tell the full story about what is happening in the economy https://t.co/14lXAOBvBy ...

German business confidence improved to its highest level since 2022 at the start of the fourth quarter https://t.co/f6JV7kpccA ...

French business confidence unexpectedly inched higher in October, driven by improvements in the manufacturing and retail sectors https://t.co/eHrq6f5FUZ ...

Core Insights - The UK government is facing pressure to find £30 billion in tax rises and spending cuts in the upcoming Budget, with warnings that further tax increases on businesses could severely impact the jobs market and economic growth [2][3]. Group 1: Business Sentiment - 56% of employers indicated they would either cut jobs or freeze hiring if corporate taxes are raised again, highlighting a significant concern for the job market [2]. - Nearly half of the surveyed businesses have already reduced jobs or halted hiring due to previous tax increases, with the unemployment rate reaching a four-year high of 4.8% [3]. - Business confidence is described as fragile, with many firms citing high operating costs and uncertainty as major barriers to growth [5]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The ICAEW warns that further tax hikes could jeopardize the UK's growth mission, with corporate tax increases potentially leading to a "damaging cliff edge" for the economy [2]. - Almost half of the firms surveyed are considering raising prices in response to higher taxes, and two in five plan to cut investment [4]. - Inflation is currently at 3.8%, nearly double the Bank of England's target, which is exacerbated by a deteriorating labor market [5][6].

Core Insights - The dollar index (DXY) has risen by +0.63%, reaching a 1.5-week high, driven by signals from Fed Chair Powell indicating a less dovish stance than market expectations [1] - US new home sales in August surged by +20.5% month-over-month to 800,000, marking a 3.5-year high, contrary to expectations of a decline [2] - The euro is under pressure due to a decline in German business confidence, with the IFO business climate survey falling to a 4-month low [3][4] Group 1: Dollar Strength and Economic Indicators - The dollar's strength is supported by a 93% market expectation of a -25 basis point rate cut by the Fed at the upcoming FOMC meeting [3] - The unexpected jump in US new home sales to 800,000 contrasts sharply with the anticipated decline to 650,000, indicating robust housing market activity [2] - The euro's weakness is compounded by the German IFO business climate survey dropping -1.2 points to 87.7, below the expected increase to 89.4 [4] Group 2: Central Bank Divergence - The European Central Bank (ECB) is perceived to be nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle, while the Fed is expected to implement two more rate cuts by year-end [4] - ECB Executive Board member Cipollone noted that inflation risks in the Eurozone are balanced, with a minimal chance of a rate cut at the upcoming ECB meeting [5] Group 3: Japanese Economic Activity - The USD/JPY exchange rate increased by +0.77%, with the yen falling to a 2.5-week low due to weak manufacturing activity in Japan, as indicated by a contraction in the S&P manufacturing PMI [6] - Japan's August machine tool orders were revised upward to +8.5% year-over-year, the largest increase in five months, suggesting some positive momentum in the manufacturing sector [7]

German business confidence unexpectedly dropped, highlighting the fragility of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s plan to restore growth in Europe’s biggest economy https://t.co/3xHF8w9HUH ...