Core Insights - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate for the first time this year, but mortgage rates rose, indicating that loan rates follow Treasury yields rather than the federal funds rate [1] Housing Market Trends - The housing market is shifting towards a buyer's market, with home prices showing positive but slowing growth, as evidenced by a 1.3% year-over-year increase in the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index for August, although prices dropped 0.3% in the most recent month [3] - Approximately one-fifth of cities have experienced home price declines over the past 12 months as of September [3] - Inventory for sale has increased by 26% through September, while actual home sales fell by 4% from January to July, indicating buyer reluctance due to high prices and interest rates [4] Market Dynamics - Homes are remaining on the market longer, with an average of 62 days in September 2025 compared to 55 days in September 2024, 48 days in September 2023, and 47 days in September 2022 [6] - Sellers are becoming more desperate, leading to less pressure on buyers to waive contingencies and better opportunities for negotiating repairs or concessions [5] New Construction Activity - Homebuilders have reduced new construction activity, with permits for new homes falling nearly 14% from 992,000 in February to 858,000 in August, marking a significant decline from 1.2 million permits per month in early 2022 [7] - Builders are motivated to sell and are offering various incentives, including reduced prices for quick closings, closing cost credits, mortgage rate buy-downs, and no-cost upgrades [8]

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market is showing signs of shifting towards a buyer's advantage, with over half of home listings sold for less than their asking prices in May [1] - A significant year-on-year decline of 15% in closed deals was noted, despite a 10% increase in pending deals, indicating potential market instability influenced by high mortgage rates [2] Market Trends - The median home price in the U.S. is currently $495,000, leading to approximately $3,000 monthly interest payments on a 7% mortgage, with total payments potentially exceeding $5,000 when including principal and insurance [3] - Inventory levels are increasing in many markets, particularly in affordable housing, with Toledo, Ohio, experiencing a 128% increase in available inventory, the highest among metropolitan areas studied [4] Regional Insights - In Toledo, the median home price is $210,000, with only 32% of homes selling above the asking price, indicating a favorable environment for buyers [5] - Naples and Cape Coral, Florida, saw inventory increases of 58% and 55%, respectively, and are identified as having the highest risk of future price declines [5] - The Washington, D.C. metro area also experienced a 58% increase in inventory, but the median home price remains high at $650,000 [5] Buyer Strategies - There is an average $45,000 disparity between median list prices and median closing prices, suggesting buyers may benefit from focusing on newly built homes rather than the second-hand market, as major homebuilders can better absorb price drops [6]

Core Insights - The housing market is currently characterized as a buyer's market in seven metropolitan areas, with Miami, Orlando, and Austin having the highest months of supply, indicating increased leverage for buyers [1][10][11] Market Supply and Demand - Miami has the highest supply at 9.7 months, a 35% increase from the previous year, indicating it would take nearly 10 months to sell all listings at the current pace [2][20] - Austin follows with 7.7 months of supply, attributed to a softening buyer demand post-COVID-19 and a significant increase in for-sale homes [5][21] - Orlando has 6.9 months of supply, with a 34% year-over-year increase in inventory [8][26] Price Trends - The median list price in Miami is $510,000, down 4.7% from the previous year [4] - In Austin, the typical home price is under $500,000, reflecting a 4.8% decrease year-over-year [7] - Orlando's median listing price decreased by 3.4% to $429,473 [8] Market Characteristics - All seven buyer-friendly metros share common traits of rising inventory and slower sales, leading to increased competition among sellers [10] - The housing market is particularly weak in the South and West, especially in Florida, with notable softness in inventory and price cuts [11] Future Price Predictions - The months of supply metric is predictive of future price movements, with all seven buyer's markets experiencing year-on-year price-per-square-foot declines [13]

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market is experiencing a significant recovery in active inventory, with 22 of the 50 largest metros showing more listings than pre-pandemic levels, led by Denver, Austin, and Seattle [1][2] Inventory Growth - Denver has seen a 100% increase in available homes compared to pre-pandemic averages, followed by Austin at 69% and Seattle at 60.9% [1][4] - Other notable metros include Dallas-Fort Worth (+55.5%), San Antonio (+58.3%), and San Francisco (+53.5%) [4] Market Dynamics - The increase in inventory is attributed to a combination of affordability concerns slowing buyer demand and a rise in new housing construction over the past six years [2][5] - Longer selling times in many Western and Southern metros are contributing to the accumulation of active inventory, indicating a cooling demand [6] Buyer Market Conditions - Although the U.S. housing market is not officially in a buyer's market, conditions are shifting favorably for buyers, with more options and increased willingness from sellers to negotiate [7] - The current supply stands at 4.6 months, still below the 6-month threshold typically defining a buyer's market, but the landscape is evolving towards a more balanced market [7] Regional Variations - The recovery in inventory is not uniform across all metros, with some markets normalizing rapidly while others remain constrained by low supply [2][5] - The nationwide shortage of nearly 4 million homes continues to impact local market conditions, making regional trends critical for buyers and sellers [7]