Revenue grew 19% year-over-year excluding political spend, though absolute growth was 14% due to the irregular nature of election cycles. Significant weakness in the CPG and automotive sectors, representing over 1/4 of the business, acted as a 5% drag on the overall growth rate. Management attributes CPG and auto softness to macro pressures including tariff uncertainty, inflationary costs, and a shift from branding to cost-cutting. A global supply-demand imbalance has created a 'buyer's market,' inc ...

Core Insights - The share of all-cash home purchases in the U.S. fell to 29% in December 2025, the lowest for that month since 2020, down from 30.3% a year earlier [1] - The decline in cash purchases is attributed to lower mortgage rates and a strong buyer's market, where sellers outnumber buyers by a record 47% [1] - The use of FHA loans decreased to 14.4%, the lowest December share since 2021, as many low-to-moderate-income Americans have been priced out of the housing market [1] All-Cash Home Purchases - All-cash purchases peaked at nearly 35% in late 2023 due to high mortgage rates, but have since declined as rates fell to an average of 6.09% [1] - Cash deals are still attractive in certain markets, particularly in Texas and Florida, where homes are sitting on the market longer [1] - Buyers paying in cash can negotiate better terms, often securing homes for 10-20% below appraised value [1] FHA Loans - The share of buyers using FHA loans decreased most in Providence, Cleveland, and Jacksonville [1] - FHA loans were most prevalent in Riverside, CA, where 25.6% of mortgaged homebuyers used one [1] - The decline in FHA loans is linked to rising housing costs, which have made it difficult for typical FHA borrowers to enter the market [1] VA Loans - The share of buyers using VA loans increased slightly to 7% in December, with the highest prevalence in Virginia Beach at 36.8% [1] - VA loans were least prevalent in San Francisco (0.7%) and San Jose (1.8%) [1] - The increase in VA loans indicates a stable demand among veterans and service members despite overall market trends [1] Conventional Loans - Over 78.6% of mortgaged homebuyers used conventional loans in December, the highest December share since 2021 [1] - The share of buyers using conventional loans increased most in Cleveland, Providence, and Tampa [1] - Conventional loans were most prevalent in San Francisco, where 98.1% of mortgaged homebuyers opted for this type [1]

Core Insights - RLI Insurance Company has reduced its catastrophe reinsurance limit by $150 million for 2026, indicating lower exposure and a soft market environment described as a "buyer's market" for property [1][2] - The company achieved a 15%–20% rate reduction on its catastrophe program and modest pricing relief on property working layers during the January renewals [2] - The competitive environment has led to a modest premium growth for RLI, with casualty rates down around 5% [3] Financial Performance - RLI reported underwriting income of $70.9 million for Q4 2025, with a combined ratio (CoR) of 82.6%, an improvement from $22.2 million and 94.4% in Q4 2024 [5] - For the full year, RLI posted underwriting income of $264.2 million and a CoR of 83.6%, compared to $210.7 million and 86.2% in 2024 [6] - The favorable results for both periods were supported by prior-year loss reserve development, contributing a net $87.4 million to underwriting income in 2025 and $84.1 million in 2024 [6] Strategic Approach - The company remains open to midterm market opportunities, reflecting a cautious yet flexible approach to risk management [3][5] - RLI emphasizes the importance of sustainable growth over rapid expansion, focusing on long-term decision-making [4] - The firm maintains a diversified specialty portfolio and a strong balance sheet, providing confidence in navigating market conditions [5]

Core Insights - The weekly mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has decreased to 6.18 percent, the lowest since 2022, down from 6.21 percent the previous week [2][3] - The current mortgage rate is 0.86 percentage points lower than the yearly peak of 7.04 percent reached in mid-January [3] Housing Market Dynamics - The U.S. housing market saw 37.2 percent more sellers than buyers in November, marking the largest gap since 2013, with 529,770 more sellers [5][6] - Redfin defines a market with over 10 percent more sellers than buyers as a buyer's market, which has been the case since May 2024 [6] - Among the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas, Austin, Texas, had the highest disparity with 114 percent more sellers than buyers [6][7] - In November, the number of home buyers reached the second-lowest level on record due to economic uncertainty and high housing costs [7] Builder Confidence and Market Outlook - Builder confidence for newly built single-family homes has slightly improved, despite challenges like rising construction costs and buyer hesitation [8] - Builders have reported future sales expectations above the breakeven level of 50 for the past three months, aided by recent easing of monetary policy [9] - The Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rates three times this year, now ranging from 3.5 to 3.75 percent [9] Future Projections - Mortgage rates are expected to ease somewhat in 2026, although they are forecasted to remain above 6 percent through the end of next year [10][11] - Slightly lower rates and slower price growth could improve affordability, potentially bringing more buyers into the market [11] - President Trump has indicated plans for aggressive housing reform and a new Federal Reserve chairman to support lower interest rates, which may further reduce mortgage rates [13]

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market experienced a significant imbalance in October, with an estimated 36.8% more home sellers than buyers, translating to 528,769 additional sellers compared to buyers, marking the largest gap since records began in 2013 [1] Market Conditions - Redfin, the real estate brokerage, defines a buyer's market as one where there are over 10% more sellers than buyers, indicating that the current market has been classified as a buyer's market since May 2024 [1] - The report highlights that there have been over 30% more sellers than buyers consistently during this period [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate for the first time this year, but mortgage rates rose, indicating that loan rates follow Treasury yields rather than the federal funds rate [1] Housing Market Trends - The housing market is shifting towards a buyer's market, with home prices showing positive but slowing growth, as evidenced by a 1.3% year-over-year increase in the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index for August, although prices dropped 0.3% in the most recent month [3] - Approximately one-fifth of cities have experienced home price declines over the past 12 months as of September [3] - Inventory for sale has increased by 26% through September, while actual home sales fell by 4% from January to July, indicating buyer reluctance due to high prices and interest rates [4] Market Dynamics - Homes are remaining on the market longer, with an average of 62 days in September 2025 compared to 55 days in September 2024, 48 days in September 2023, and 47 days in September 2022 [6] - Sellers are becoming more desperate, leading to less pressure on buyers to waive contingencies and better opportunities for negotiating repairs or concessions [5] New Construction Activity - Homebuilders have reduced new construction activity, with permits for new homes falling nearly 14% from 992,000 in February to 858,000 in August, marking a significant decline from 1.2 million permits per month in early 2022 [7] - Builders are motivated to sell and are offering various incentives, including reduced prices for quick closings, closing cost credits, mortgage rate buy-downs, and no-cost upgrades [8]

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market is showing signs of shifting towards a buyer's advantage, with over half of home listings sold for less than their asking prices in May [1] - A significant year-on-year decline of 15% in closed deals was noted, despite a 10% increase in pending deals, indicating potential market instability influenced by high mortgage rates [2] Market Trends - The median home price in the U.S. is currently $495,000, leading to approximately $3,000 monthly interest payments on a 7% mortgage, with total payments potentially exceeding $5,000 when including principal and insurance [3] - Inventory levels are increasing in many markets, particularly in affordable housing, with Toledo, Ohio, experiencing a 128% increase in available inventory, the highest among metropolitan areas studied [4] Regional Insights - In Toledo, the median home price is $210,000, with only 32% of homes selling above the asking price, indicating a favorable environment for buyers [5] - Naples and Cape Coral, Florida, saw inventory increases of 58% and 55%, respectively, and are identified as having the highest risk of future price declines [5] - The Washington, D.C. metro area also experienced a 58% increase in inventory, but the median home price remains high at $650,000 [5] Buyer Strategies - There is an average $45,000 disparity between median list prices and median closing prices, suggesting buyers may benefit from focusing on newly built homes rather than the second-hand market, as major homebuilders can better absorb price drops [6]

Core Insights - The housing market is currently characterized as a buyer's market in seven metropolitan areas, with Miami, Orlando, and Austin having the highest months of supply, indicating increased leverage for buyers [1][10][11] Market Supply and Demand - Miami has the highest supply at 9.7 months, a 35% increase from the previous year, indicating it would take nearly 10 months to sell all listings at the current pace [2][20] - Austin follows with 7.7 months of supply, attributed to a softening buyer demand post-COVID-19 and a significant increase in for-sale homes [5][21] - Orlando has 6.9 months of supply, with a 34% year-over-year increase in inventory [8][26] Price Trends - The median list price in Miami is $510,000, down 4.7% from the previous year [4] - In Austin, the typical home price is under $500,000, reflecting a 4.8% decrease year-over-year [7] - Orlando's median listing price decreased by 3.4% to $429,473 [8] Market Characteristics - All seven buyer-friendly metros share common traits of rising inventory and slower sales, leading to increased competition among sellers [10] - The housing market is particularly weak in the South and West, especially in Florida, with notable softness in inventory and price cuts [11] Future Price Predictions - The months of supply metric is predictive of future price movements, with all seven buyer's markets experiencing year-on-year price-per-square-foot declines [13]

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market is experiencing a significant recovery in active inventory, with 22 of the 50 largest metros showing more listings than pre-pandemic levels, led by Denver, Austin, and Seattle [1][2] Inventory Growth - Denver has seen a 100% increase in available homes compared to pre-pandemic averages, followed by Austin at 69% and Seattle at 60.9% [1][4] - Other notable metros include Dallas-Fort Worth (+55.5%), San Antonio (+58.3%), and San Francisco (+53.5%) [4] Market Dynamics - The increase in inventory is attributed to a combination of affordability concerns slowing buyer demand and a rise in new housing construction over the past six years [2][5] - Longer selling times in many Western and Southern metros are contributing to the accumulation of active inventory, indicating a cooling demand [6] Buyer Market Conditions - Although the U.S. housing market is not officially in a buyer's market, conditions are shifting favorably for buyers, with more options and increased willingness from sellers to negotiate [7] - The current supply stands at 4.6 months, still below the 6-month threshold typically defining a buyer's market, but the landscape is evolving towards a more balanced market [7] Regional Variations - The recovery in inventory is not uniform across all metros, with some markets normalizing rapidly while others remain constrained by low supply [2][5] - The nationwide shortage of nearly 4 million homes continues to impact local market conditions, making regional trends critical for buyers and sellers [7]