COVID pull - forward effect

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Service Corporation International (SCI) 2025 Conference Transcript
2025-05-13 22:20
Summary of Service Corporation International (SCI) Conference Call Company Overview - Service Corporation International (SCI) is the largest operator of funeral homes and cemeteries, owning approximately 1,500 funeral homes and 500 cemeteries, generating around $4.5 billion in revenue and approximately $1.4 billion in EBITDA annually [4][9][11]. Industry Dynamics - The company has experienced a "COVID pull forward effect," where an additional 130,000 funeral services were performed during the pandemic, leading to a normalization period with flat funeral volumes expected in the near term [6][7]. - Long-term growth is anticipated due to demographic trends, particularly the aging baby boomer generation, which is expected to create a tailwind for the industry in the next four to five years [8][10]. Financial Performance - Q1 volumes were up by 1.8%, but the company remains cautious about annual guidance due to potential volume pull forward effects from flu season [13][14]. - A backlog of deferred revenues amounts to $16 billion, which is four times the annual revenues, indicating future demand for services [9]. Sales and Revenue Streams - The company has transitioned to a new insurance vendor, improving commission rates from the high 20% range to the mid-30% range, which is expected to enhance cash flow and revenues [19][20]. - Cemetery sales production is approximately $1.4 billion annually, with 85% of sales being under $80,000, which may be affected by macroeconomic conditions [26][29]. Macroeconomic Considerations - The company has not yet seen a reduction in consumer propensity to transact, but discretionary spending could be impacted by rising costs of living [29][30]. - The company feels confident about its supply chain management and long-term contracts, which mitigate tariff exposure [42][47]. Margin Expansion - Both funeral and cemetery segments have a fixed cost structure of 60% to 70%, allowing for significant margin expansion as throughput increases [49][51]. - Current funeral margins are around 20-21%, with potential to reach mid-20s as demographics shift [52]. Acquisition Strategy - SCI typically spends $100 million annually on acquisitions, with a target range of $75 million to $125 million. The company is disciplined in its acquisition strategy, focusing on long-term relationships with independent operators [55][57]. - The company is opportunistic in real estate purchases, looking for suitable land for new funeral homes and cemeteries [59][60]. Long-term Outlook - The company expects to grow pre-need cemetery sales in the low to mid-single digits, with a long-term outlook of mid-single-digit growth as demographics favor the industry [35][38]. - The impact of the baby boomer generation is anticipated to positively affect both funeral and cemetery services in the coming years [50][52].