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Here's why RBC Capital lifted the S&P 500 year-end price target
CNBC Television· 2025-07-14 10:51
Market Outlook & Strategy - RBC Capital Markets initially set a year-end target of 6,600, then adjusted to 5,550 in a bare case scenario when the market declined by 10%, later revising to 5,750, and currently stands at 6,250 [4] - The market rebounded from the April 8th low at an accelerated pace, achieving in 3 months what typically takes 9 months based on historical patterns from 2010, 2011, and 2018 [5] - Clients are shifting focus from 2025 to 2026, indicating they believe potential economic or inflation challenges have already been priced in [6] - Tariffs have had a cooling effect on the market, addressing overvalued assets and underlying vulnerabilities [8] - The consensus GDP forecast for the current year has been revised down from over 2% to approximately 1.5%-1.6%, with a similar forecast for the following year [9] Inflation & Valuation - Lower inflation levels could positively influence PE multiples [10] - Current PE ratios are around 22-225 times [11] - The market cap weighted PE for the top 10 names in the S&P 500 is above 25 times, suggesting more opportunities outside of these top names [12] - The Russell 2000 experienced recession lows on April 8th and has since shown strong performance, although it has not yet significantly outperformed large-cap stocks [13]