Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Sell" rating for Acciona Energia with a price target of €18 [1][18][37] Core Views - Consensus earnings estimates for Acciona Energia are considered overly optimistic, particularly regarding the impact of targeted disposals on future profits [1][18] - The company is expected to end 2025 with a smaller installed capacity than in 2024, leading to a year-on-year decline in underlying EBITDA for 2025 and 2026 [1][3][18] - The report forecasts net income for 2025-26 to be approximately 20%-40% below Bloomberg consensus estimates, indicating significant downside risk [4][26][27] Summary by Sections Installed Capacity and Growth - Acciona Energia plans to add 600 MW of capacity organically by 2025, but the announced disposal of 600 MW of domestic hydro assets implies no net growth in installed capacity [2][19] - Incremental divestments of €1.5-1.7 billion are expected, suggesting a minimum reduction of 1 GW in operational assets [2][19] EBITDA and Financial Performance - A decline in underlying EBITDA is anticipated for both 2025 and 2026 due to a shrinking installed base and lower power prices [3][22] - The report projects EBITDA for 2025 at €998 million and for 2026 at €961 million, contrasting with Bloomberg's consensus forecast of a 5%-10% increase in 2026 [3][24] Net Income Forecasts - The report estimates net income for 2025-26 to be around €135-145 million, significantly lower than the consensus estimate of €180-220 million [4][26][27] - This discrepancy suggests a potential for negative EPS revisions, which could further impact the share price [4][26] Valuation and Price Target - The price target of €18 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, with 50% derived from the 2025E SOTP of €19.2/share and 50% from existing asset valuation [37][38] - The report indicates a 2.7% downside from the current price, compared to an average upside of 17% for peers [37][38]