Eoneren/E+ via Getty Images By Daniel Chu, CFA | Charles Hamieh | Shane Hurst | Nick Langley Lower Bond Yields to Add Tailwind for Infrastructure - Market Overview Listed infrastructure trailed global equities in the fourth quarter, both delivering a more subdued end to a strong year of performance. Despite two cuts in short-term rates in the U.S. in the quarter, rate-sensitive sectors were pressured by higher longer-term bond yields and a higher-for-longer sentiment more generally. Continuing a catch- ...

Core Insights - TotalEnergies has agreed to sell 50% of a 424-megawatt portfolio of renewable assets in Greece to Asterion Industrial Partners for €254 million [1] Company Summary - The transaction involves a significant stake in renewable energy assets, indicating TotalEnergies' strategic move to partner with investment firms in the renewable sector [1] - Asterion Industrial Partners, a Spanish investment management firm, is expanding its portfolio in the renewable energy space through this acquisition [1] Industry Summary - The sale reflects ongoing trends in the renewable energy market, where major oil companies are divesting from traditional assets to focus on sustainable energy solutions [1] - The deal highlights the increasing interest and investment in renewable energy infrastructure in Europe, particularly in Greece [1]

Summary of J.P. Morgan Clean Energy Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus for investors heading into 2026 will be on baseload power sources, with a shift towards individual stock fundamentals and valuations rather than just thematic exposure [1][4] - The utility-scale renewable market is expected to outperform, with a trend towards larger and more complex projects leading to consolidation among upstream and downstream providers [1][4] Key Insights - **Baseload Power Sources**: Anticipated increase in order activity for baseload power sources such as CCGT, fuel cells, and geothermal, driven by data centers and US manufacturing onshoring [1][4] - **Consolidation in Renewables**: Despite a projected 13% year-over-year decline in US utility-scale solar, larger developers remain optimistic due to strong backlogs, indicating a ripe environment for consolidation [1][4] - **Investor Sentiment**: Improved investor sentiment and increased interactions with generalists have been noted, with renewables trading at a ~26% higher multiple compared to a ~12% increase for the S&P 500 [1][6][33] Risks and Challenges - Potential headwinds include: 1. Increased costs for solar due to the Department of Commerce's Section 232 investigation into polysilicon imports [1][4] 2. New permitting requirements for solar and wind projects on federal land [1][4] 3. Possible tariff decisions affecting imports from Laos, Indonesia, and India [1][5] 4. Legal challenges regarding President Biden's AD/CVD moratorium [1][5] Stock Ratings and Recommendations - **Top Picks**: - Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) and Brookfield Renewable Corp (BEPC) are highlighted for their scale and capital access, with a price target of $34 for BEP and $48 for BEPC [1][12] - GE Vernova (GEV) is expected to see order activity and pricing accelerate, with a price target of $740 [1][13] - NextPower (NXT) is well-positioned for market share gains, with a price target of $110 [1][14] - **Rating Changes**: - Upgrades: Generac (GNRC) and Quanta Services (PWR) to Overweight [1][15][17] - Downgrades: Enlight Renewable Energy (ENLT) to Underweight and Primoris (PRIM) to Neutral [1][18][19] Financial Metrics - **Stock Performance**: Notable year-to-date performance includes: - Generac (GNRC) +5% - Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) +32% - GE Vernova (GEV) +92% [1][28] - **Valuation Multiples**: Renewables coverage has expanded multiples significantly since mid-August 2025, reflecting improved visibility into incentives [1][33] Conclusion - The clean energy sector is poised for growth with a focus on larger projects and consolidation, despite facing regulatory and market challenges. The sentiment among investors is improving, and select stocks are recommended based on their fundamentals and market positioning [1][4][6][12][33]

Company Overview - The Andersons is a materially stronger company poised for continued profitable growth, with a balanced, diversified portfolio rooted in North American ag and renewables supply chains[11] - The company reported revenue of $116 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $317 million for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2025[20] - Adjusted EPS was $256 for the same period[20] - The company expects run-rate EPS to reach $700 by 2028[64] Agribusiness Segment - The Agribusiness segment's adjusted EBITDA was $195 million for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2025, representing 53% of the company's total adjusted EBITDA[20, 69] - The segment traded 33 million tonnes of commodities and sold 19 million tons of fertilizer[69] - The segment has 275 million bushels of grain storage capacity[69] Renewables Segment - The Renewables segment's adjusted EBITDA was $175 million for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2025, representing 47% of the company's total adjusted EBITDA[20, 103] - The segment produced 506 million gallons of ethanol at 4 facilities[103] - The segment merchandised 335 million gallons of 3rd-party ethanol[103] Financial Strategy - The company has a long-term debt to EBITDA target of less than 25x[197] - The company deployed approximately $11 billion in capital, with 45% allocated to capital expenditures and 45% to return cash to shareholders[200] - The company anticipates $30 million - $35 million annual impact from 45Z tax credit in 2025, increasing to $90 million - $100 million annually from 2026-2028, cumulating to $300 million+[210]

Market Overview - Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) has surpassed 4,500, a level not seen in a decade, raising investor interest and speculation about a potential breakout after years of stagnation [1] - The rally is driven by recovering REITs, steady industrial performance, and strong earnings from major banks, despite mixed results among them [2][5] Bank Performance - DBS Group reported a net profit of S$2.95 billion for 3Q2025, while OCBC posted S$1.98 billion; however, UOB's net profit fell to S$443 million due to increased provisions [2][5] - DBS's total income increased by 3% YoY to S$5.9 billion, while OCBC maintained a strong capital return plan with a CET1 ratio of 16.9% [5] - UOB's profit decline of 72% was attributed to S$1.36 billion in credit allowances, including S$615 million in pre-emptive provisions [5] REITs and Industrial Stocks - REITs have stabilized, with CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust achieving a portfolio occupancy of 97.2% and a 3.5% YoY increase in distribution per unit (DPU) [3][10] - Sembcorp Industries reported an underlying profit of S$491 million for 1H2025, while Keppel Ltd's net profit surged 25% YoY to S$431 million, driven by real estate recovery [3] - The average distribution yield for S-REITs is around 6.2%, higher than global peers and Singapore government bond yields, indicating renewed strength in the sector [11] Industrial Sector Growth - Singapore's industrial companies are benefiting from trends in clean energy, infrastructure upgrades, and digitalization, contributing to the STI's rally [13][16] - Sembcorp's earnings have improved due to a focus on renewable energy, while Singapore Technologies Engineering reported a 20% increase in net profit to S$403 million [14] - New contracts worth S$4.9 billion were secured in 3Q2025, enhancing the order book in various sectors [15] Economic Indicators - Singapore's GDP grew by 2.9% YoY in 3Q2025, with total merchandise trade rising 6.6% in 2024 to S$1.29 trillion, indicating steady growth [17][18] - Despite the positive indicators, external risks such as geopolitical tensions and policy shifts could impact market sentiment and financial conditions [17][18] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on quality companies with steady earnings, strong balance sheets, and reliable dividends, particularly in the REITs and industrial sectors [19][20] - A diversified portfolio of well-managed companies is recommended to withstand market volatility and capitalize on potential long-term growth [19][20]

Group 1: Data Centres and AI Boom - Data centres are considered the back office of the AI boom, but the sector involves heavy upfront capital expenditure (capex) and uncertain initial utilization, which can negatively impact profitability [1] - Replacing storage hardware is costly and frequent, leading to significant depreciation as a cash cost, distinguishing it from other infrastructure investments [1] Group 2: Market Valuation and Stock Picking - Indian markets have become complacent regarding high valuations, making selective stock picking crucial [2] - There is no sector-wide valuation comfort, but individual stocks within sectors may still present attractive opportunities [2] - The market is expected to remain range-bound with a mild negative bias due to foreign institutional investor (FII) selling, fresh equity supply, and modest earnings growth [2] Group 3: Investment Themes - A blend of growth and value investment strategies is recommended, indicating that this is not a market for index buying [5][7] - Strong opportunities are identified in green energy, particularly in local solar cell manufacturing, which is seen as a significant structural shift [6][9] - In the banking sector, select banks like Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank, and IDFC First Bank are highlighted for their growth visibility and reasonable valuations, with improved liquidity and managed deposit repricing [6][9]

Financial Highlights - Q3 2025 net income attributable to IEP was $287 million, or $049 per depositary unit, compared to $22 million, or $005 per depositary unit, for Q3 2024[6] - Q3 2025 Adjusted EBITDA attributable to IEP was $383 million compared to $183 million for Q3 2024[6] - Indicative net asset value as of September 30, 2025, was approximately $38 billion, an increase of $567 million compared to June 30, 2025[6] - IEP declares third quarter distribution of $050 per depositary unit[6] Segment Performance - Energy segment net income was $258 million in Q3 2025, compared to a loss of $88 million in Q3 2024[9] - Energy segment Adjusted EBITDA was $409 million in Q3 2025, compared to a loss of $38 million in Q3 2024[9] - Investment segment returns were negative 05% for Q3 2025[13, 15] - Automotive Services revenue was $366 million, up $11 million when compared to Q3 2024[25] - Food Packaging Q3 2025 Adjusted EBITDA attributable to IEP decreased by $8 million compared to prior year quarter[32]

Core Viewpoint - BP is facing significant challenges due to high debt levels, reliance on asset sales, and a declining oil price environment, raising concerns about its financial stability and future strategy [1][5][13]. Financial Position - BP's net debt has increased by $4 billion over the last three months, with a current reported net debt of approximately $41 billion, which analysts believe is understated [3][19]. - Analysts estimate BP's adjusted net debt could be as high as $82 billion when accounting for various liabilities, including $17.1 billion in hybrid bonds and $7.1 billion related to the Deepwater Horizon disaster [12][11][9]. - The company aims to reduce its net debt to between $14 billion and $18 billion by 2027, a target viewed as ambitious given the current financial landscape [4][20]. Asset Sales and Strategy - BP plans to generate $20 billion from asset disposals by 2027 to help manage its debt, but there are doubts about the feasibility of achieving this target, particularly regarding the sale of its Castrol motor oil arm [20][21]. - The company has divested valuable fossil fuel assets at low prices to invest in renewable energy projects, which have not generated expected cash flows, leading to significant value destruction [15][17]. Leadership and Market Perception - Murray Auchincloss, BP's current CEO, faces skepticism regarding his ability to turn the company around, especially after the previous leadership's aggressive pivot to renewables [6][7]. - The market is questioning Auchincloss's strategy amid pressure from activist investors, with concerns that BP's financial management has not been prudent during favorable market conditions [19][26]. Future Outlook - BP's financial strategy may require further sacrifices, including cuts to investor payouts, as the company navigates a challenging environment with falling commodity prices and high debt levels [24][25]. - The company's reliance on an oil price assumption of $70 per barrel, while current prices are around $64, suggests potential further hits to investor returns [25].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted operating income was reported at $6.2 billion before tax, while net income was -$0.2 billion, affected by net impairments primarily due to a lower long-term oil price outlook [4][12] - Year-to-date cash flow from operations after tax reached $14.7 billion, with adjusted earnings per share at $0.37 [5][13] - Cash flow from operations for the quarter was $9.1 billion, with total cash and cash equivalents exceeding $22 billion [12][13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Production increased by 7% year-over-year, totaling 2,130,000 barrels per day, with a 9% growth on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) [9][10] - Adjusted operating income from E&P Norway was $5.6 billion before tax, while E&P International results reflected lower production but also lower depreciation [10][11] - Renewables business saw operating costs decrease by around 50% compared to the same quarter last year, with expectations of a 30% annual decrease [6][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Liquids prices were lower compared to the same quarter last year, while average gas prices increased, particularly in the U.S. [10] - U.S. onshore gas production rose by 40%, while U.S. offshore production increased by 9% year-over-year [9][10] - International production outside the U.S. declined due to temporary shutdowns and divestments in Azerbaijan and Nigeria [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain production levels on the NCS through 2035, focusing on smaller discoveries and quicker developments [82] - A more active role in Ørsted is being pursued, with plans to nominate a board candidate to enhance collaboration and shareholder value [8][17] - The company is cautious about further capital commitments in offshore wind due to current industry challenges, while still developing existing projects [18][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management highlighted ongoing geopolitical unrest and market volatility impacting pricing and trading conditions [5] - There is an expectation of a tighter gas market this winter, with storage levels around 83%, which is 12% below last year [34] - The company remains committed to capital distribution, with a cash dividend of $0.37 per share and a share buyback program totaling up to $1.266 billion [8][13] Other Important Information - The company reported net impairments of $754 million, primarily due to lower long-term oil price assumptions [12] - A tragic fatality occurred at Munkstad, emphasizing the need for continued focus on safety [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for unit depreciation charge in Norway? - The unit depreciation charge is up about 13% from Q2, driven by new assets coming online, particularly Johan Castberg, and is expected to gradually reduce going forward [15][16] Question: Can you elaborate on the decision to take a board seat in Ørsted? - The company aims to take a more active role as a shareholder to improve collaboration and create shareholder value, especially during the current downturn in the offshore wind industry [17][24] Question: What factors influenced the change in MMP guidance? - The guidance was changed to around $400 million per quarter due to market conditions and the divestment of gas infrastructure assets, which had a $40 million quarterly impact [21][22][56] Question: What is the status of the Peregrino disposal? - Peregrino resumed production on October 17th, and the divestment of the 60% ownership position is expected to close in two phases, with a total transaction value of $3.5 billion [43][44] Question: What is the latest on the Rosebank approval process? - The permit was taken away due to Scope 3 emissions concerns, and the company has submitted a response that is currently under public consultation [76][78]

Market Overview - The market experienced increased volatility, particularly in October, which is historically a challenging month, although September saw a 3.5% increase, the best performance since 2010 [2][3] - Recent events, including isolated bankruptcies and concerns over China trade, contributed to market fluctuations, but the overall economic outlook remains positive [3][4] Economic Indicators - The Atlanta Fed's tracker indicated a 3.9% growth for the third quarter, driven by consumer spending and advancements in AI [4] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell's dovish stance suggests potential interest rate cuts and an end to quantitative tightening soon, which could support market stability [4] Earnings Outlook - Earnings reports from major banks were strong, with net interest income and fee income showing significant growth, particularly a 40% increase in investment banking fees [6][7] - Regional banks also reported better-than-expected net interest income and credit quality, indicating resilience despite isolated issues [7][8] Sector Preferences - The focus remains on industrial plays related to AI, such as data center buildouts and grid upgrades, with companies like Quana Services and Eaton highlighted as strong prospects [10] - Homebuilders are viewed positively due to anticipated interest rate declines, despite being out of favor currently [11] Consumer Trends - Upcoming earnings reports from companies like Proctor & Gamble and Deckers are anticipated to provide insights into consumer behavior and market share dynamics against competitors like Nike [9][12] - The discretionary sector is expected to perform well, with positive indicators from back-to-school sales and holiday shopping forecasts [15][16] Energy Sector Sentiment - Traditional energy stocks are viewed less favorably due to macroeconomic challenges and government policies aimed at lowering oil prices, leading to a lack of investment in this sector [13][14]