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Can Stride's Career Learning Boom Keep Margins Rising in 2026?
ZACKSยท 2025-11-27 16:11
Core Insights - Stride, Inc.'s Career Learning segment has shown significant growth, with enrollments increasing by 20% year over year to 110,000 and revenues rising by 16.3% to $257.8 million in Q1 of fiscal 2026, reflecting a shift in U.S. education towards career-aligned pathways [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for the same period grew by 29.2% year over year, although the company faced challenges due to a large-scale technology platform overhaul, which increased operating expenses and withdrawal rates [2][3] - The long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations for platform stabilization and continued demand in Career Learning, potentially leading to margin expansion in fiscal 2027 [4] Company Performance - Stride's competitive position in the career learning and K-12 services market is strong, particularly due to its integrated model that combines K-12 education with career learning, which is not fully replicated by competitors [5][7] - The company faces competition from American Public Education, which targets specific adult markets, and Coursera, which offers flexibility and global recognition [6][7] - Stride's stock has underperformed, dropping 61.4% over the past three months, and currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7.42, indicating a discount compared to industry peers [8][11] Earnings Outlook - Earnings estimates for fiscal 2026 and 2027 have been revised downwards by 4.8% and 8.3%, respectively, due to ongoing operational challenges and a muted enrollment growth outlook [12] - Despite the downward revisions, the estimates still imply year-over-year improvements of 3.6% for fiscal 2026 and 6.2% for fiscal 2027 [13]