Cash Available For Distribution (CAFD)
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Clearway Energy Has Accelerating Growth From AI Buildout (NYSE:CWEN)
Seeking Alpha· 2026-02-06 22:10
Core Viewpoint - Clearway Energy (CWEN) has made significant changes that support its ambitious growth guidance, projecting a Cash Available For Distribution (CAFD) of $2.90-$3.10 by 2030, indicating a 7%-8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030 [2][4]. Group 1: Growth Potential - CWEN's growth rate of 7%-8% is unusual for a yield-co, which typically focuses on steady cash flows to pay dividends, limiting retained cash for further investments [3][4]. - The current high demand for energy and CWEN's expertise in developing large-scale energy assets position the company favorably to meet its growth targets [4][6]. - CWEN's parent company has a pipeline of over 11 GW, which will be dropped down into CWEN at strong CAFD yields, enhancing growth prospects [6][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for incremental power development has surged, while the ability to build new power sources has been constrained by regulatory challenges [5][8]. - Power purchase agreement (PPA) pricing has nearly doubled, positively impacting CWEN's yield and organic growth potential [8][19]. Group 3: Project Developments - CWEN has several repowering projects that utilize existing infrastructure, leading to faster completion times and higher returns, with targeted CAFD yields of about 10.5% [14][17]. - The company has 863 MW of repowerings locked in with power purchase agreements, contributing to its growth strategy [17][19]. Group 4: PPA Pricing Trends - PPA prices have increased significantly since 2022 due to the elimination of most tax credits and rising power demand, which benefits CWEN's development yields [32][33]. - The upward trend in PPA pricing improves the organic growth outlook for CWEN, as contracts signed in recent years are likely to roll over at higher rates [35][36]. Group 5: Share Structure and Valuation - CWEN has a split share structure with CWEN and CWEN.A, where CWEN.A is trading at a discount while providing the same claims to dividends and cash flows [38][39]. - The current valuation suggests that a 16X CAFD multiple is reasonable, given the long-term growth potential and the company's ambitions to maintain CAFD/share growth of over 5% beyond 2030 [37][40].