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Emerging Markets Bonds Can Keep the Good Times Going
Etftrends· 2025-11-28 13:26
Core Insights - President Trump's economic policy during his second term was expected to prioritize "America first," yet international markets, particularly emerging markets, have outperformed domestic financial markets [1] Emerging Markets Performance - Investors in emerging markets have achieved significantly higher returns compared to developed markets this year, with emerging-market government bonds gaining 15% and equities rising over 25% through September 30, based on indices like the JPMorgan Emerging-Market Bond Index and the MSCI Emerging Markets equity index [3] - The Neuberger Berman Emerging Markets Debt Hard Currency ETF (NEMD) has returned nearly 4% in a few months, indicating its potential as a noteworthy investment option [2] Drivers of Emerging Markets Debt - A primary driver for the upside in emerging markets debt, including bonds in NEMD, has been the weakness of the dollar, with 10 of the 14 major emerging market currencies outperforming the dollar by the end of Q3 [4] - Many emerging currencies have appreciated this year, often by double-digit percentages, leading to reduced local inflation pressures and allowing central banks to ease monetary policy [5] Federal Reserve Influence - The dollar's decline has been partly due to expectations of Federal Reserve easing, which has positively impacted NEMD [6] - Lower policy interest rates have increased demand for emerging-market bonds, as investors seek to benefit from rising bond prices, while central bank easing has raised expectations for stronger local corporate earnings, boosting equities [7]