South Africa’s finance minister adopts a 3% inflation target, giving political backing to the central bank which lobbied for the change https://t.co/mPblvZSGJS ...

Inflation & Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston indicates that the recent surge in inflation expectations presents a greater challenge to the US central bank's ability to control price pressures compared to previous instances [1]

Banking System Analysis - Fractional reserve banking is highly leveraged and politically protected [1] - Banks are now distribution extensions of the central bank, not independent risk intermediaries [1] - The sovereign balance sheet, not the commercial one, represents the real capital structure [1] Decentralized vs Centralized Systems - Stablecoins and private credit funds are market-native instruments that clear through collateral [2] - Decentralized collateral systems absorb volatility [2] - Centralized credit systems outsource volatility to the taxpayer [2] Risk and Loss - Losses are transparent when stablecoins and private credit funds fail [2] - Bank failures result in socialized losses [2]

Economic Cycles - The economy functions like a machine, driven by short-term and long-term debt cycles [4] - Short-term debt cycles, typically lasting 5 to 8 years, are primarily controlled by the central bank through interest rate adjustments [5] - These cycles involve expansion fueled by credit, leading to inflation, followed by contraction (recession) when the central bank raises interest rates [1][2][3] - Long-term debt cycles occur because debts rise faster than incomes over decades, leading to a debt burden [6] - The ratio of debt to income is called the debt burden, which remains manageable as long as incomes rise [7] Debt and Credit - Spending increases are fueled by credit, which can be created instantly [1] - When credit is easily available, there's an economic expansion; when it's not, there's a recession [4] - Rising incomes and asset values help borrowers remain creditworthy for a long time, even with accumulating debt [8] - At some point, debt repayments grow faster than incomes, forcing people to cut back on spending, leading to a reversal of the cycle [9] - Debt burdens become too big, leading to deleveraging, as seen in 2008 in the United States and Europe [10][11] Inflation and Deflation - Inflation occurs when spending and incomes grow faster than the production of goods, causing prices to rise [1] - The central bank raises interest rates to combat inflation [2] - Deflation occurs when people spend less, causing prices to go down, leading to a recession [3] Human Behavior - People have an inclination to borrow and spend more instead of paying back debt, pushing the economy [5] - Lenders freely extend credit because everyone thinks things are going great, focusing on rising incomes and asset values [6] - People borrow huge amounts of money to buy assets as investments, causing their prices to rise even higher, creating a boom and potentially a bubble [8][7]

Political Influence on Central Bank - Democrats under Obama and Biden administrations attempted to influence the central bank for political gains [1] - Trump administration is overtly and aggressively pursuing a similar agenda [1]

Federal Reserve Response - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell responded to criticisms from a White House official [1] - The criticism concerns a $2.5 billion renovation project [1]