Group 1 - The Chicago PMI for November shows a reading of 36.3%, indicating a significant decline and marking the lowest level since May 2024 [1] - The manufacturing sector in Chicago has not been above the expansion threshold of 50 for two years, with the last reading above 50 occurring in November 2023 [1] Group 2 - Weak economic indicators are contributing to rising yields, which is causing confusion in the market [2] - The stock market is responding to these economic conditions, suggesting a complex relationship with interest rates [2][3] - Long-term interest rates are challenging to maintain at lower levels, as evidenced by recent settlements around 4% [3]

Group 1 - Chicago's October PMI reading is 43.8%, better than the expected 42.5% and the highest since July 2023, although it remains in contraction territory for the 23rd consecutive month [1][2] - The previous month's final PMI reading was 40.6%, indicating a sequential improvement [2] - The last month of expansion was November 2023, when the PMI was above 50 [2] Group 2 - Current yields on 10-year bonds are down two basis points for the day but up eight basis points for the week, while two-year bonds are up 11 basis points for the week [3] - Yields on these maturities are higher than before the September 25 basis point cut, suggesting market reactions may not align with Fed rate cuts [3]

Well, this is an odd one. 47.1% is our July read from MNI on the Chicago PMI. Manufacturing much better than expected, but still under 50.47.1% would be the best since March. But here's the issue. It's the 20th consecutive number under 50 in contraction mode. It's the 34th out of 35 under 50.The last time we had over 50 was November of 23, but prior to that, the entire year was under 50. So, it's definitely a weak number in general, but it's a strong number today. Dollar index, and we mentioned this yesterd ...