China Industrial Recovery

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摩根士丹利:中国工业_6 月挖掘机销售_好于预期
摩根· 2025-07-14 00:36
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [5] Core Insights - June total excavator sales in China rose by 13% year-over-year (YoY), with a six-month increase of 17% [1][2] - Domestic sales increased by 6% YoY, with a six-month growth of 23%, surpassing market expectations of negative to flat YoY [1][5] - Export sales saw a significant rise of 19% YoY, with a six-month increase of 98%, exceeding expectations [1][2] - The machinery utilization rate was reported at 56.9% in June, down 7.5 percentage points YoY, which may impact sales outlook for July [1][5] - A modest recovery of 10-15% YoY in domestic sales is anticipated for 2025 [1] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Total excavator sales in June reached 18,804 units, marking a 13% increase YoY and a 3% increase month-over-month (MoM) [2] - Domestic sales accounted for 8,136 units, reflecting a 6% YoY increase but a 3% decrease MoM [2] - Export sales totaled 10,668 units, showing a 19% YoY increase and a 9% MoM increase [2] Market Expectations - The report indicates that the domestic sales growth is higher than market expectations, which anticipated a decline or flat performance [1][5] - The weak machinery utilization rate is a concern for future sales, particularly in the off-season of July [1][5] Future Outlook - The report projects a modest recovery in domestic excavator sales of 10-15% YoY for 2025, indicating a cautious but positive outlook for the industry [1]