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China Retail Catch-up with US
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FT中文网精选:中国零售为何没有超越美国?
日经中文网· 2025-04-30 06:10
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for China to catch up with the United States in retail sales, emphasizing the importance of policy measures to boost income and consumption, stabilize the real estate market, and maintain a stable or appreciating RMB exchange rate [6]. Group 1: Retail Market Comparison - In 2019, China's retail sales were very close to those of the United States, with some months even surpassing them, leading to widespread media discussions about China potentially becoming the largest retail market globally [6]. - However, after 2020, the gap in retail sales between China and the U.S. has widened again, projected to exceed 20% by 2024, primarily due to differing pandemic responses, real estate market trends, and RMB depreciation [6]. Group 2: Policy Implications - Since the fourth quarter of last year, China's policy focus has shifted towards consumption and strengthening the real estate market, with ongoing measures to support these areas [6]. - If income and consumption-boosting policies are implemented effectively, alongside further support for the real estate market and a stable or slightly appreciating RMB, it could significantly aid China's efforts to catch up with the U.S. in retail sales [5][6].