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SpaceX's AI Cloud Business Is Taking Off, Says Deutsche Bank
Bloomberg Television· 2026-08-05 20:47
Financial Performance and Revenue Projections - Cloud services leasing and compute capacity rental are generating the bulk of revenue, with the cloud business estimated to end December running at a 40 plus billion dollar run rate [1][2] - Additional cloud services revenue of 6.7% billion was contracted in the first few weeks of the third quarter over a six-month period starting in October [3] - Total annualized revenue run rate (ARR) is projected to reach 100 billion by the end of the year, driven by the cloud business and cursor contributions [4][5] - Combined revenue streams including cloud (40 billion), AI/Grok X/advertising (1.5 billion), and cursor are projected to reach a 60 billion run rate by December, with remaining businesses contributing 35 to 40 billion to achieve the 100 billion ARR [5][6] - Consensus modeling on Bloomberg for 2030 full-year revenue stands at 351 billion, while Elon Musk anticipates hitting 1 trillion by 2030 (with a non-zero chance in 2029) [9][11] Industry Trends and Technological Developments - SpaceX cloud business momentum is primarily driven by leasing compute capacity to third parties like Google and Anthropic [1] - SpaceX business segments consist of space, AI, and connectivity, with leasing compute capacity identified as the biggest contributor to the 100 billion ARR [4][5] - SpaceX decided to go exclusively with Nvidia and Vera Rubin architecture, planning to start launching that orbital data center design next year [7] - Scaling orbital data centers to a gigawatt level presents major challenges in increasing volume and reducing the cost of solar technology and radiators [8][9] - Starship operational cadence is tracking towards 15 to 20 flights next year, supporting the deployment of approximately 1,000 B3 satellites at 50 to 60 satellites per launch [12][13]