光模块：本周光模块指数+4.84%，本月以来光模块指数+4.14%。NV 业绩&指引双 beat。但从股价看市场反应温和， 我们认为主要系担心竞争格局、预期交易充分的原因。展望 3 月，NVIDIA GTC 大会即将开幕,我们预计有望展示 CPO 交换机、rubin ultra 等方案，或将给再催化光通信板块。 IDC：本周 IDC 指数+2.41%，本月以来，IDC 指数+2.44%。OpenRouter 数据显示，2026 年 2 月 9 日至 15 日当周，中 国模型的调用量为 4.12 万亿 Token，首次超过美国模型（2.94 万亿 Token）。中国领先的芯片制造商正努力在两年 内将采用尖端工艺技术制造的芯片产量提高五倍，以满足国内人工智能行业的需求。 核心数据更新： 电信业务量收增速逐步提升。2025 年电信业务收入累计完成 1.75 万亿元，同比增长 0.7%。按照上年不变价计算的电 信业务总量同比增长 9.1%。12 月我国光模块出口金额当月同比增加 0.9%；1-12 月累计同比降低 16%。4Q25 微软/谷 歌/Meta/亚马逊资本支出分别为 299 亿/279 亿/214 亿/39 ...

行 业 研 究 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -38% -19% 0% 19% 38% 58% 77% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 电子 沪深300 相关研究报告 《海内外大模型密集更新，推动 AI 算 力需求持续增长—行业点评报告》 -2026.2.23 《JX 金属指引明确行业景气度，靶材 成为半导体金铲子—行业点评报告》 -2026.2.13 《关注半导体自主可控和涨价连锁反 应—行业点评报告》-2026.2.9 SK 海力士打响存储扩产第一枪，3 月看好设备+耗材 扩产链 ——行业点评报告 陈蓉芳（分析师） 向俊儒（联系人） chenrongfang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524120002 xiangjuru@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070018 事件：SK 海力士 150 亿美金追投，打响全球存储扩产第一枪 2 月 25 日，SK 海力士宣布 2030 年前投资 21.6 万亿韩元（约 150.7 亿美元）， 用于建设首座厂房及洁净室设施，预计洁净室的开放时间将从原定的 2027 年 5 ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济|定期报告 2026 年 3 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 怎么看所谓 2028 年"全球智能危机"的观点 宏观周度述评系列（2026.02.24-03.01） [报告摘要 Table_Summary：] 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1注：未特别说明，报告数据来自 wind，彭博 | [Table_Author] 分析师： | 郭磊 | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | | SFC CE No. BNY419 | | | 021-38003572 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 陈礼清 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523080003 | | | 021-38003809 | | | chenliqing@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 陈嘉荔 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 | | | 021-38003674 | | | gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 钟林楠 | ...

持续关注 AI Infra 及商业航天 计算机周观察 20260301 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 本篇报告梳理了过去一周科技相关热点，建议持续关注 AI Infra 及商业航天。 OpenAI 完成新一轮融资估值达到 7300 亿美元；英伟达发布 FY26Q4 业绩，营 收与利润创历史新高，数据中心贡献超九成；SpaceX 正加快推进史上最大规 模 IPO 计划，预计估值将达到 1.75 万亿美元；中国 Token 调用量首超美国， 算力云服务是最确定方向。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 285 | 5.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4529.7 | 3.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 4022.3 | 3.8 | 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 03 月 01 日 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -2.1 2.7 11.0 相对表现 -2.2 -4.7 -7.7 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Mar/25 Jun/25 Oct/25 Jan/ ...

When Jeff Bezos said that one breakthrough technology would shape Amazon’s destiny, even Wall Street’s biggest analysts were caught off guard. Fast forward a year and Amazon’s new CEO Andy Jassy described generative AI as a “once-in-a-lifetime” technology that is already being used across Amazon to reinvent customer experiences. At the 8th Future Investment Initiative conference, Elon Musk predicted that by 2040 there would be at least 10 billion humanoid robots, with each priced between $20,000 and $25,000 ...

When Jeff Bezos said that one breakthrough technology would shape Amazon’s destiny, even Wall Street’s biggest analysts were caught off guard. Fast forward a year and Amazon’s new CEO Andy Jassy described generative AI as a “once-in-a-lifetime” technology that is already being used across Amazon to reinvent customer experiences. At the 8th Future Investment Initiative conference, Elon Musk predicted that by 2040 there would be at least 10 billion humanoid robots, with each priced between $20,000 and $25,000 ...

When Jeff Bezos said that one breakthrough technology would shape Amazon’s destiny, even Wall Street’s biggest analysts were caught off guard. Fast forward a year and Amazon’s new CEO Andy Jassy described generative AI as a “once-in-a-lifetime” technology that is already being used across Amazon to reinvent customer experiences. At the 8th Future Investment Initiative conference, Elon Musk predicted that by 2040 there would be at least 10 billion humanoid robots, with each priced between $20,000 and $25,000 ...

Core Insights - Generative AI is viewed as a transformative technology by Amazon's CEO Andy Jassy, indicating its potential to significantly enhance customer experiences across the company [1] - Elon Musk predicts that humanoid robots could create a market worth $250 trillion by 2040, representing a substantial shift in the global economy driven by AI innovation [2] - Major firms like PwC and McKinsey acknowledge the multi-trillion-dollar potential of AI, suggesting a broad consensus on its economic impact [3] Company and Industry Analysis - A breakthrough in AI technology is believed to be redefining work, learning, and creativity, leading to increased interest from hedge funds and top investors [4] - There is speculation about an under-owned company that may play a crucial role in the AI revolution, with its technology posing a threat to competitors [4] - Prominent investors, including Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, recognize AI as a significant technological advancement with the potential for substantial social benefits [8] Market Trends - The AI ecosystem is expected to reshape business, government, and consumer operations globally, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2] - The enthusiasm for AI is reflected in the investments and partnerships of major tech companies, highlighting the competitive landscape [6][8]

Core Insights - Nvidia has experienced explosive revenue growth driven by its expertise in artificial intelligence (AI), with the AI market projected to exceed $2 trillion [1][2] - The company has transitioned from a focus on gaming to a comprehensive offering for AI customers, including chips, networking tools, and software, resulting in significant revenue gains and strong profitability [2][4] - Nvidia's revenue has surged due to its strategic design of AI-specific chips, leading to a stock performance increase of 1,300% over the past five years [5] Financial Performance - In the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2026, Nvidia reported double-digit revenue growth and a gross margin reaching the mid-70% range [2] - The current market capitalization of Nvidia is $4.3 trillion, with a gross margin of 71.07% and a dividend yield of 0.02% [7] Business Evolution - Nvidia has evolved from primarily serving the video gaming market to focusing on AI, which has become its largest revenue source [4][7] - Currently, 91% of Nvidia's revenue is generated from the data center business, indicating a high dependency on AI for growth [7] Market Position and Risks - While Nvidia's heavy reliance on AI could be seen as a risk, the company continues to explore other revenue sources, including gaming, professional visualization, automotive, robotics, and telecom [7][8] - The demand for AI technology remains high, and Nvidia's adaptability in the industry suggests a strong long-term potential despite current dependencies [8]

"HALO"概念的背后：对 AI 的冷静认知 本周英伟达业绩超预期但股价大幅下行，去年 11 月以来 EPS 与股价走势的背离仍在延续，指向市场对于 AI 颠覆的担 忧仍在持续。这一现象的原因可能和 2022 年国内新能源相关资产的走弱相似性：彼时国内新能源资本开支仍在上升 且景气度较高，但 A 股整体 ROE 进一步走低，企业转型新能源增多，供给格局的恶化担忧让资本市场不再定价新能源 相关资产景气，转而定价产业矛盾激化的稳定能源资产（煤炭、火电）。类似的情况正在美国出现，科技巨头资本开支 仍在提升但中小企业盈利能力持续恶化，AI 并没有带来下游收入的提升，更多是大型企业的降本和切蛋糕的行为，这 就无法像科网泡沫时期由于应用的收入增长以支撑市场对于全产业链进行成长定价，但企业本身的资本开支会持续。 投资者的关注点一方面转向 AI 拉动的基础设施和资源品领域；一方面开始担忧 AI 对于整个高附加值+轻资产行业的 负面影响，同时随着"HALO"概念的提出，不易被 AI 取代的领域也成为了担忧下的避风港。今年以来美股重资产组 合表现显著强于轻资产组合，同时美股中能源、材料、工业、公用事业板块在 25Q4 有明显超预 ...