证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20260301 美股:英伟达"交卷"，美伊局势"搅局"— —美股周观点 [Table_Summary] ◼ 本周（2026 年 2 月 23 日-2026 年 2 月 27 日）市场回顾：新兴市场继续上涨（2.8%）， 发达市场零涨幅。 美股：本周道指领跌，下跌 1.3%，纳指下跌 1.0%，标普下跌 0.4%。行业上，公共事 业、日常消费品领涨，金融、工业领跌。标普 500 成份股上涨占比 58%，其中德科 技、派拉蒙、亚安、奈飞、戴尔科技等领涨。 美股冲高回落，整体收跌。美股 AI 进入验证期，美伊紧张局势反复，导致美股市场 本周呈现冲高回落的走势，三大指数全周均录得下跌。具体来看： 其一，英伟达财报尚未完全缓解 AI 焦虑。尽管英伟达财报超预期，持续释放积极信 号，包括 Networking 业务表现强劲，以及英伟达在每瓦推理性能方面的领先优势， 推理的 Token 增长将推动 CSP 收入增长等。但亮眼业绩难掩市场对 AI 泡沫的担忧， 市场对 2027 年数据仍存焦虑。市场对超大规模企业的资本支出何时见顶以及英伟达 盈利触顶心存疑虑。 其二，美伊局势紧张 ...

电网&工控：1）国网发布服务新能源高质量发展十项举措，提出增强电网资源配置能力、增大分布式电源接入空间等， 建议依次关注主干网、配网、智能化方向；2）金盘科技、华明装备 25Q4 归母净利润分别同比+2%/+7%，业绩基本符 合预期，数据中心、出海仍是核心驱动力；3）伟创电气 25Q4 年归母净利润同比+26%，工控主业加速复苏，符合预期。 本周重要行业事件： 风光储：英国政府首次公开《中英清洁能源合作伙伴关系谅解备忘录》全文；通威公告拟发股收购青海丽豪。 电网：国网发布服务新能源高质量发展十项举措；国网与国家能源集团会谈；内蒙古拟新增特高压柔性直流输电线路。 锂电：3 月国内外锂电产业链排产整体回暖；津巴布韦暂停锂精矿出口。 子行业周度核心观点： 整体观点：两会临近，"绿氢氨醇"作为双碳任务重要增量载体，有望成为政策支持焦点，伊朗局势升级或显著推升 甲醇价格，驱动绿醇加速替代，再次重点强调"绿醇、电解槽等设备、燃料电池及零部件"内外部催化共振机会。在 微软与星链签署全球合作协议、中国光伏企业与北美客户积极推进合作等催化下，以及对万众瞩目的 SpaceX 第三代 星舰或将在 3 月内首次发射（并尝试回收）等重 ...

在巴塞罗那MWC大会召开前夕，英伟达宣布与包括诺基亚、思科、德国电信、T-Mobile、BT集团及 Booz Allen Hamilton在内的全球电信与基础设施巨头联合，承诺在开放、安全的AI原生平台上构建6G网 络。 英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋周日表示，"AI正在重新定义计算，并推动人类历史上规模最大的基 础设施建设——电信业将是下一个。" 此次合作的核心是AI-RAN（人工智能无线接入网络）技术路线。T-Mobile首席执行官Srini Gopalan表 示，"随着6G成为AI时代的骨干网络，电信将成为数字经济的神经系统，支撑自主系统和智能产业的大 规模运转。"6G预计于2030年前后正式商用，最早将于2028年启动试验。 AI-RAN商业化提速，多家运营商入局 英伟达此次不仅停留于战略宣示，还宣布与T-Mobile、软银及Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison达成新的AI- RAN商业化合作，将相关技术从实验室推向实际部署。 围绕英伟达方案构建的生态系统正在扩展，涵盖Quanta Cloud Technology的现成系统、WNC Corp.的AI 优化室内外射频单元、Eridan C ...

When you get as many things going wrong as there are right now, you do not think about opportunity; you think about safety. I get that. We have the most uncertain of times in the Mideast after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran this weekend. We have a man-made inflationary event — the closing of the world's chief oil artery, the Strait of Hormuz. The skyrocketing of oil prices will make it so the Federal Reserve can't help us, even under President Donald Trump 's soon-to-be Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh. We are ...

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry warns that Nvidia's significant increase in purchase obligations signals structural risks similar to those that led to Cisco's collapse during the dot-com bubble [1][5]. Financial Commitments - Nvidia's purchase obligations have surged to $95.2 billion from $16.1 billion a year ago, with total commitments now around $117 billion when including other supply agreements [2]. Operational Changes - Burry argues that the increase in purchase obligations reflects a fundamental change in Nvidia's operations, indicating heightened risk rather than a response to external factors [3][4]. Historical Comparison - The situation is compared to Cisco Systems in 2000, which faced a significant downturn after aggressively committing to supply contracts during the internet boom, leading to a drastic drop in stock price [5]. Profit Margins - Although Nvidia currently enjoys a 70% profit margin, Burry expresses skepticism about its sustainability, suggesting that margins could revert quickly with changes in demand [6]. Market Sentiment - While Burry is pessimistic, some analysts, like those at Rosenblatt Securities, view Nvidia's inventory strategy as a sign of management's confidence in future AI platforms, raising their price target to $300 [7].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock, despite a remarkable 1,110% increase since the start of 2023, is still considered a bargain due to its high-margin growth, relentless innovation, and aggressive stock repurchase strategy. Group 1: High-Margin Growth - Nvidia reported $215.9 billion in revenue for fiscal 2026, an eightfold increase from $27 billion in fiscal 2023, primarily driven by data center growth [3] - Data center revenue reached $193.7 billion in fiscal 2026, up from $15 billion in fiscal 2023, highlighting the transformative impact of artificial intelligence on Nvidia's business [3] - Nvidia achieved 71% gross margins, 60.6% operating margins, and 55.6% net profit margins in fiscal 2026, resulting in a net income of $120.1 billion [4] Group 2: Relentless Innovation - Nvidia continues to enhance its product offerings, countering concerns about margin decline by delivering significant performance improvements that justify premium pricing [6] - The Blackwell Ultra architecture upgrade offers up to 50 times better performance and 35 times lower costs for agentic AI compared to the previous Hopper platform [7] - The upcoming Rubin platform integrates six different chips for improved performance and cost efficiency, showcasing Nvidia's commitment to "extreme codesign" for data center applications [8] - Nvidia's roadmap includes a focus on agentic AI, with expectations of exponential growth in physical AI applications, which should help maintain high margins [9] Group 3: Stock Repurchases - Nvidia's high margins enable substantial excess cash flow, allowing for significant stock buybacks without compromising its balance sheet or innovation funding [10] - In fiscal 2026, Nvidia repurchased $40.1 billion in stock, an increase from $33.7 billion in fiscal 2025 and $9.5 billion in fiscal 2024 [10] - Although Nvidia's market cap is $4.3 trillion, the buybacks will gradually reduce share count and enhance earnings-per-share growth over time [11] - At 39.9 times fiscal 2026 earnings, Nvidia may not appear undervalued, but its high-margin earnings and growth potential position it as a better value compared to the S&P 500, which trades at 29.9 times earnings [11]

Core Insights - The four largest hyperscalers plan to invest over $650 billion in AI infrastructure this year, indicating a significant growth opportunity in the AI sector [1] Group 1: Chip and Memory Makers - Nvidia is the primary supplier of GPUs for AI workloads and maintains a competitive edge with its CUDA software platform, which is essential for AI training [2] - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has established a niche in AI inference and has secured significant partnerships with OpenAI and Meta Platforms [2] - Broadcom is capitalizing on the demand for custom AI ASICs and has collaborated with Alphabet to develop Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) for data center infrastructure [3] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) holds a virtual monopoly on advanced logic AI chip manufacturing, providing it with substantial pricing power [4] - Micron Technology is positioned well in the AI infrastructure boom due to its production of high bandwidth memory (HBM), which is in short supply and driving up prices [5] Group 2: Central Processing Units (CPUs) - AMD is recognized as a leader in the CPU market, which is becoming increasingly vital with the rise of agentic AI [6] - Other potential beneficiaries in the CPU space include Arm Holdings and Intel [6]

Summary of NVIDIA Corp (NVDA.O) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NVIDIA Corp - **Industry**: Graphics Processing Units (GPUs), Data Centers, Automotive - **Headquarters**: Santa Clara, CA - **Market Cap**: $4,752,108 million [8] Key Financial Metrics - **Current Stock Price**: $195.56 - **Target Price**: Raised to $300, indicating a potential return of 53.4% [8] - **Fiscal Year End**: January 31 - **Sales Revenue Estimates**: - FY2027: $371.87 billion - FY2028: $490.77 billion - FY2029: $565.72 billion [11] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Sales Growth**: NVIDIA expects sales to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% from 2025 to 2028, with FY2029 sales estimated at $566 billion, reflecting a 15% year-over-year increase [2][27]. 2. **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: FY2027 EPS estimates increased by 2% to $8.02, and FY2028 EPS is projected at $10.20 [2]. 3. **Gross Margins**: Management anticipates gross margins to remain in the mid-70s%, with current estimates at 75% for the upcoming quarter [4][24]. 4. **Data Center Revenue**: Data Center revenue grew 22% sequentially, driven by demand for AI technologies, particularly the Grace Blackwell platform [12][13]. 5. **Product Launches**: The Vera Rubin chip is expected to be a cornerstone for AI inference, with production shipments anticipated in the second half of 2026 [3][13]. 6. **Hyperscaler Revenue Concentration**: The top five hyperscalers account for about 50% of total revenue, but management expects diversification in customer base moving forward [5]. Segment Performance 1. **Gaming Revenue**: Down 13% quarter-over-quarter but up 47% year-over-year, representing approximately 5% of total sales [18]. 2. **Pro Visualization Revenue**: Increased by 74% quarter-over-quarter, crossing the $1 billion sales mark, driven by strong demand for DGX Spark [19]. 3. **Automotive Sales**: Modest growth of 2% quarter-over-quarter, with significant developments in autonomous vehicle technology [20]. Market Dynamics - **AI Demand**: The demand for AI GPUs and networking products is expected to drive significant revenue growth, with NVIDIA's AI GPU sales projected to reach $269 billion by FY2027 [26]. - **China Market**: NVIDIA faced challenges in shipping products to China due to US export controls, with zero sales expected from the H20 product line [17]. Risks and Considerations 1. **Competition**: Potential loss of market share in gaming could negatively impact stock performance [43]. 2. **Adoption Rates**: Slower-than-expected adoption of new platforms may lead to lower sales in data centers and gaming [43]. 3. **Market Volatility**: Fluctuations in the auto and data center markets could add volatility to stock performance [43]. Conclusion NVIDIA Corp is positioned for strong growth driven by AI demand and product innovation, with a favorable outlook for revenue and earnings. However, potential risks from competition and market dynamics should be monitored closely.

Vi e w p o i n t | 25 Feb 2026 19:27:39 ET │ 10 pages Taiwan Semiconductors Nvidia result implications - Blackwell expanding strongly, entering the Rubin Cycle CITI'S TAKE Nvidia just published its Jan Q result (report) and provided a positive outlook for the upcoming Rubin product cycle. While some investors were skeptical on Rubin's schedule and initial yield rate, Nvidia reiterates that the chip already has mass volume production and system rack is to ramp up big volumes in 2H26. Yet we believe the major ...

on 26-Feb-2026 U.S. Semiconductors NVIDIA Corp Rating Outperform Price Target NVDA 300.00 USD (275.00 OLD) 26 February 2026 Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D. +1 213 559 5917 stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw +1 917 344 8454 alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com $220 $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 02/25 05/25 08/25 11/25 02/26 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 NVDA SPX Arpad von Nemes +1 917 344 8461 arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com NVIDIA (NVDA): FQ426 recap - Tell me what you want to hear... NVIDIA's FQ4 results solidly beat ( ...