Core Insights - Costco and Dollar Tree are both performing well in a challenging economy, but Costco has a stronger track record of success [1] - Consumers are increasingly seeking bargains, with Dollar Tree attracting higher-income shoppers [1][6] - Costco operates on a membership model, which contributes significantly to its operating income and allows for lower product margins [1][11] Business Models - Costco is a club store requiring a yearly membership fee, which constitutes about half of its operating income [1] - Dollar Tree operates as a traditional retailer, relying on low price points to attract customers [3] - Dollar Tree faces higher risks of losing customers to other retail concepts compared to Costco [3] Recent Performance - Costco reported a 6.4% increase in same-store sales and a 3.1% increase in traffic for its fiscal second-quarter 2026 [4] - Dollar Tree's same-store sales rose by 4.2% in its third quarter of 2025, with an influx of higher-income shoppers [4][6] Customer Demographics - Dollar Tree gained approximately three million new households, with 60% earning over $100,000, indicating a shift from more premium retailers like Target [6] - Costco's model encourages long-term customer loyalty due to its curated selection of high-quality products [7] Economic Outlook - If the economy improves, Costco is likely to continue thriving, while Dollar Tree may lose its wealthier customers [8] - Dollar Tree's strategy to upgrade its product assortment could shift its low-price appeal [7] Valuation Metrics - Costco's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 47, while Dollar Tree's is 24.5, indicating that both stocks are considered expensive relative to their historical averages [11] - Costco's five-year average P/E is approximately 44, and Dollar Tree's is about 21 [11] Investment Considerations - Costco's consistent business model and strong financial results make it appealing to investors, despite its high valuation [14] - Dollar Tree's recent attempts to expand its product range follow a problematic acquisition, which may affect its long-term viability [13]