Key Takeaways from China Coal Industry Conference Industry Overview - The conference focused on the coal industry in China, particularly thermal and coking coal imports and prices for 2026 [1][2][6]. Core Insights 1. **Coal Import Projections**: - Total coal imports for 2026 are expected to decline to approximately 480 million tonnes (mnt), down from 493 mnt projected for 2025. This includes thermal coal at 373 mnt and coking coal at 107 mnt for 2026, compared to 383 mnt and 110 mnt in 2025 [2][9]. 2. **Price Forecasts**: - The average thermal coal price is forecasted to be Rmb 735 per tonne in 2026, an increase from Rmb 710-720 per tonne in 2025. Short-term price corrections are anticipated before winter heating demand potentially drives prices up to Rmb 850-900 per tonne [3][9]. 3. **Inventory Levels**: - Inventory levels across the supply chain are reported to be below seasonal averages, particularly at mines and ports. Slow stockpiling due to lower production and increased restocking by traders may lead to upward price pressure if inventory drawdowns continue [4][9]. 4. **Production Growth**: - A coal production increase of 1.1-1.5% is expected for 2026. Downstream demand from heating (+2%) and coal chemicals (+6%) is anticipated to offset declines in building materials (-0.3%) and steelmaking (-2%) [6][9]. 5. **Market Dynamics**: - The widening import price arbitrage between domestic and Indonesian coal since September is expected to increase import arrivals towards the end of the year, although logistics and the December rainy season may cause disruptions [2][4]. Additional Important Points - The production in November-December 2025 is expected to rebound slightly but will continue to show negative year-on-year growth due to ongoing overproduction inspection checks [9]. - Coking coal prices are projected to average Rmb 1,430-1,450 per tonne in 2026, up from Rmb 1,360 per tonne in 2025, while Mongolia coal prices are expected to be around Rmb 930 per tonne in 2026, compared to Rmb 900 per tonne in 2025 [9]. Conclusion - The coal industry in China is facing a complex landscape with declining imports, fluctuating prices, and tight inventory levels. The anticipated production growth and downstream demand may provide some stability, but external factors such as logistics and seasonal weather patterns could impact market dynamics significantly [1][6][9].