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摩根士丹利:中国煤炭_煤炭每周更新_价格温和反弹
摩根· 2025-07-04 01:35
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is cautious [7]. Core Insights - Thermal coal prices remained unchanged with QHD 5500 at Rmb660/t, CCI 5500 at Rmb615/t, and BSPI at Rmb663/t as of June 27 [7][10]. - Coking coal prices saw a slight increase, with Liulin No. 4 mine-mouth price up 0.9% WoW to Rmb565/t [2][10]. - Inventory destocking continued, with QHD inventory decreasing 2.2% WoW to 5.65 million tons [2][7]. - Elevated rainfall in June, exceeding 1,000mm, may support hydro power generation recovery, potentially reducing thermal coal demand [3][7]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - QHD 5500 kcal/kg thermal coal price remained flat at Rmb660/t, while CCI 5500 kcal/kg was at Rmb619, showing a 0.7% increase WoW [7]. - Seaborne prices for NEWC thermal coal were flat at US$107/t, down 16.4% YTD [7]. - Coking coal prices remained stable for FOR at Rmb1,130/t and QLD at US$179/t [2][7]. Inventory Levels - QHD inventory decreased by 2.2% WoW to 5.65 million tons, marking a 14% decrease YTD [2][7]. - Bohai Rim ports inventory also saw a decline of 2.1% WoW to 28.2 million tons [2]. Weather Impact - China's average precipitation in June reached over 1,000mm, which could positively impact hydro power generation and negatively affect thermal coal demand [3][7]. Company Ratings - China Shenhua Energy has an Overweight rating, while Yankuang Energy Group Co Ltd has an Underweight rating [58].