Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitco.com Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough- and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or ano ...

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough-and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another. Jim is the proprietor of the "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets" analytical, educational and trading advisory service. Jim also worked as a ...

Jim Wyckoff has spent over 25 years involved with the stock, financial and commodity markets. He was a financial journalist with the FWN newswire service for many years, including stints as a reporter on the rough- and-tumble commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York. As a journalist, he has covered every futures market traded in the U.S., at one time or another. Follow Jim daily on Kitco.com as he provides both AM and PM roundups and a daily Technical Special. 1 877 963-NEWS jwyckoff at kitc ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel remain under pressure in the near term. The high - priced nickel ore and weak demand are squeezing the profits of the intermediate links, making it difficult to directly boost the nickel price. The price of ferronickel still shows a downward trend, and the procurement intensity of the upstream and downstream of ferronickel is weak. The demand for stainless steel is sluggish in the off - season, and the inventory reduction is slow. The nickel salt in the new energy chain has declined due to the impact of the nickel price. Attention should be paid to the spot transaction situation and the boost from the macro news in the future [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Volatility - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. 2. Management Strategies Inventory Management - When the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory value reduction, short Shanghai nickel futures based on the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2. Sell call options with a hedging ratio of 50% and a strategy level of 2. - According to the production plan, buy far - month Shanghai nickel contracts to lock in production costs in advance, with a buying direction and a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 [2]. Procurement Management - When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about the rise in raw material prices, sell put options with a selling direction and a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 1. Buy out - of - the - money call options with a buying direction and a hedging ratio based on the procurement plan and a strategy level of 3 [2]. 3. Core Contradictions - Shanghai nickel has been oscillating at the bottom. The short - term support from Philippine nickel mines still exists, and the domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia has a slight downward shift. The premium in June is stable, but the high - priced ore and weak demand are squeezing the profits of the intermediate links. The price of ferronickel is still declining, and the procurement intensity of the upstream and downstream is weak. The demand for stainless steel is sluggish in the off - season, and the inventory reduction is slow. The nickel salt in the new energy chain has declined due to the impact of the nickel price. Attention should be paid to the spot transaction situation and the macro news [3]. 4.利多 and 利空 Factors 利多 Factors - The Philippine government plans to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025. Some stainless steel plants have announced production cuts. There is still support from the cost side of nickel ore prices [4]. 利空 Factors - The inventory reduction of stainless steel is slow. Stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season of demand. The demand for precursors in the new energy chain is relatively weak [4]. 5. Market Data Nickel Disk Daily - The latest value of Shanghai nickel main continuous contract is 121,390 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0%. The latest value of Shanghai nickel continuous one contract is 121,390 yuan/ton, down 1,320 yuan or 1.08% month - on - month. The latest value of Shanghai nickel continuous two contract is 121,600 yuan/ton, down 1,270 yuan or 1.03% month - on - month. The latest value of Shanghai nickel continuous three contract is 121,770 yuan/ton, down 1,290 yuan or 1.03% month - on - month. The latest value of LME nickel 3M is 15,365 US dollars/ton, down 125 US dollars or 1.05% month - on - month. The trading volume is 107,520 lots, with a month - on - month change of 0%. The open interest is 78,763 lots, with a month - on - month change of 0%. The warehouse receipt volume is 21,041 tons, down 151 tons or 0.71% month - on - month. The basis of the main contract is - 1,550 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan or 8.3% month - on - month [5]. Stainless Steel Disk Daily - The latest value of stainless steel main continuous contract is 12,460 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0%. The latest value of stainless steel continuous one contract is 12,435 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan or 1.62% month - on - month. The latest value of stainless steel continuous two contract is 12,460 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan or 1.54% month - on - month. The latest value of stainless steel continuous three contract is 12,480 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan or 1.50% month - on - month. The trading volume is 214,653 lots, with a month - on - month change of 0%. The open interest is 188,420 lots, with a month - on - month change of 0%. The warehouse receipt volume is 120,039 tons, down 1,624 tons or 1.33% month - on - month. The basis of the main contract is 630 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan or 8.70% month - on - month [6]. 6. Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,375 tons, down 2,178 tons from the previous period. The LME nickel inventory is 198,126 tons, down 966 tons from the previous period. The stainless steel social inventory is 983.3 tons, up 15.8 tons from the previous period. The ferronickel inventory is 31,462 tons, up 1,907.5 tons from the previous period [7].