Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged past $5,000 per ounce due to geopolitical risks and investor uncertainty, while energy markets are primarily influenced by tangible supply-demand constraints [1] Geopolitics, Trade, and Volatility - The market for risk assets largely ignored the Greenland incident, indicating that an immediate US-EU trade shock is unlikely [1] - Brent crude prices initially rose due to geopolitical unrest but softened as the likelihood of transatlantic trade disruption increased, before recovering as tensions eased [1] - Ongoing US sanctions on Iran continue to impact crude prices, highlighting the sensitivity of the oil market to incremental supply risks [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's proposal for "variable geometry alliances" aims to enhance supply-chain resilience and energy security [1] - Tensions escalated when US President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Canada if a trade agreement with China was ratified [1] Energy Markets - Oil traders are closely monitoring the enforcement of Iran sanctions and signals from OPEC+ members, while natural gas markets are vulnerable to weather risks [1] - A recent spike in US gas prices due to an extreme winter storm illustrates how quickly supply-demand fundamentals can shift market dynamics [1] Fed and Macro-Financial Split - Attention is on the Federal Reserve's guidance, particularly comments from Chair Powell, as markets adjust expectations for rate cuts [1] - The US dollar, real interest rates, and overall liquidity are critical variables for commodity markets [1] - A continued restrictive stance from the Fed may limit gains in cyclical commodities, while a more flexible approach could support energy and industrial metals [1] - The sustained demand for gold and silver reflects investors seeking hedges against policy uncertainty and concerns over fiscal dominance [1] - Commodity markets are increasingly bifurcated between those driven by physical balances (e.g., natural gas) and those responding to macro-financial risks (e.g., gold) [1]