Comparable store sales growth
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Grocery Outlet's 1.1% Comps: Are Green Shoots Turning Into Growth?
ZACKSยท 2025-09-17 17:26
Core Insights - Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) demonstrated steady progress in Q2 2025, with net sales increasing by 4.5% year over year to $1.18 billion, supported by 1.1% comparable store sales growth and contributions from new store openings [1][7] Sales Performance - Comparable store sales growth was driven by a 1.5% increase in transaction volume, which offset a modest 0.4% decline in average ticket size [1] - Management anticipates sequential gains in comparable sales for the remainder of the year, projecting improvements of 2% and 2.6% in Q3 and Q4, respectively [5] Operational Initiatives - The company opened 11 new stores and closed two, increasing its total store count to 552 [3] - Enhanced in-stock positioning on high-velocity items contributed to a comp lift of approximately 150-200 basis points on the fastest-selling 20% of SKUs [2] - The rollout of a real-time order guide improved in-stock levels, delivering a 200-basis point comp lift in test stores, while a new forecasting tool for meat and produce drove double-digit sales increases in pilot locations [4] Value Strategy - Grocery Outlet's Known Value Item pricing strategy has been refined to ensure 15-20% basket savings compared to discount peers, addressing previous gaps in value perception [6] Future Outlook - The company expects accelerated comparable store sales momentum in the second half of 2025, reaffirming guidance for 1-2% comparable store sales growth and raising its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to $0.75-$0.80 [7] Competitive Landscape - Comparatively, Ollie's Bargain Outlet reported a 5% increase in comparable store sales, while BJ's Wholesale Club saw a mixed performance with a 0.3% decline in total comparable club sales [8][9] - Albertsons Companies raised its fiscal 2025 comparable sales guidance to a range of 2.0-2.75%, indicating strong performance across various segments [11] Stock Performance and Valuation - Grocery Outlet's stock has gained 28.5% over the past three months, outperforming the industry average decline of 2.1% [12] - The forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio for Grocery Outlet is 18.61X, lower than the industry's average of 19.62X [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year growth of 8.3% in sales and 1.3% in earnings per share for the current fiscal year [14]