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The Optimist Fund Q4 2025 Quarterly Letter
Seeking Alpha· 2026-02-18 00:50
Core Insights - The Optimist Fund aims to deliver exceptional long-term investment performance, targeting capital compounding at mid-teens or better over decades [2] - The fund has been operational for nearly four years and is tracking positively towards its five-year investment lens [3] Performance Overview - As of December 31, 2025, the fund's compound returns are as follows: 1 Year: 32.2%, 2 Year: 48.4%, 3 Year: 59.1%, Since Inception: 19.1% [4] - In Q4 2025, the fund experienced a decline of 8.5%, but remains optimistic about the fundamental performance of its holdings [4] Investment Strategy - The fund focuses on identifying businesses where deep research reveals a gap between market expectations and long-term realities, referred to as developing unique insights [5] - The strategy emphasizes long-term investment outcomes over short-term volatility, allowing the fund to capitalize on market dislocations [9][10] Key Holdings and Performance - Top contributors in Q4 included Wayfair and Carvana, both showing significant year-over-year revenue growth [22][23][24] - Top detractors included ThredUp and Monday.com, with ThredUp showing strong fundamentals despite stock price declines [25][26][27] Portfolio Adjustments - The fund exited its position in Fiverr due to a lack of conviction in its growth trajectory, while initiating new positions in Root and Affirm [32][33][35] - DiscoverIE is highlighted as a high-quality industrial compounder with potential for significant EPS growth over the next five years [36][38][39] Future Outlook - The fund believes the next five years will outperform the previous four, driven by improved valuations and stronger underlying business fundamentals [20][21]