Group 1: Containerboard Production and Capacity - Containerboard production decreased by 3.1% in Q3 2024 compared to Q3 2023, and it was down 3% for the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period last year [2] - Production capacity for containerboard declined by 1.7% from Q2 2025, with an overall drop of approximately 10% in 2025 to date, described as "historic" by analysts [2] - Domestic new supply in Q3 was essentially flat compared to Q1, indicating an improvement from a weak Q2 where production dropped by 5% year over year [2] Group 2: Operating Rates and Inventories - Operating rates for all four major containerboard grades saw a boost in Q2 due to capacity declines, remaining flat year over year, with expectations to climb from approximately 90% in 2023 and 2024 to about 95% early next year [3] - North American paper mills' Q3 inventories peaked in August at nearly 462,000 short tons, an increase from 433,000 short tons in May, marking the highest inventory level in 15 months, although September saw an 8% decrease [4] Group 3: Box Shipments - There was a 1.4% year-over-year decline in box shipments, consistent with trends discussed by executives in recent earnings calls [5] - Despite some improvement noted in September, overall quarterly shipments ended down, with Packaging Corporation of America's corrugated shipments per day declining by 2.7% year over year in Q3, Smurfit Westrock's daily shipments dropping by 8.7%, and International Paper's down by 1.7% [6] - International Paper adjusted its overall shipment expectations for 2025 to a decline of 1% to 1.5%, instead of the previously anticipated increase [6]