Summary of the 2025 China Materials Tour Meeting with Antaike Copper Expert Industry Overview - **Industry**: Copper Industry - **Company**: Antaike Copper Key Takeaways 1. **Demand Forecast for FY25-26E**: - Copper demand is exceeding expectations in FY25, with forecasts revised from 2.7% YoY at the beginning of the year to 4.2% YoY by September 2025. - However, demand is expected to slow down in the second half of FY25, with an estimated growth of over 2% YoY compared to 5.9% YoY in the first half of FY25. - For FY26, copper demand is projected to grow at 2.8% to 3% YoY [2][2][2]. 2. **Capacity Cap Discussion**: - There is a possibility that anti-involution trends may affect the copper sector, with some industry consultations held earlier in the year. - The impact of potential capacity caps is expected to be limited due to the challenges in defining and monitoring the effective capacity of copper smelters [3][3][3]. 3. **Scrap Copper Insights**: - The output of scrap copper is primarily driven by copper prices; higher prices incentivize increased scrap output. - Current challenges include collection capabilities. - Scrap demand was approximately 4.5 million tons in FY24, with a forecasted increase to 4.9 million tons in 2025, mainly driven by recycled scrap [4][4][4]. Additional Important Points - The meeting highlighted the importance of monitoring copper prices as they directly influence scrap copper output and overall demand dynamics in the copper market [4][4][4]. - The gradual loss of momentum in on-the-ground demand entering the second half of FY25 suggests potential caution for investors in the copper sector [2][2][2].