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Freedom Capital Initiates MDU Resources Coverage With Hold Rating
Financial Modeling Prep· 2025-12-26 18:30
Core Viewpoint - Freedom Capital Markets initiated coverage on MDU Resources Group Inc. with a Hold rating and a $20 price target [1] Group 1: Company Operations and Financials - MDU's regulated electric, natural gas, and pipeline operations across eight U.S. states provide stable returns and predictable cost recovery over the long term [2] - Management plans to increase average annual capital expenditures by 27% between 2026 and 2030 compared to 2025 levels, supporting an earnings per share compound annual growth rate of 7.6% over the 2025–2030 period [2] - To fund growth, MDU announced an approximately $200 million equity issuance in addition to debt financing [3] - MDU targets a dividend payout ratio of 60% to 70%, with projected 2026 dividends of $0.58 per share, implying a 3% yield and a dividend CAGR of 10.3% through 2030 [3] Group 2: Market Outlook and Valuation - The medium-term macroeconomic outlook is viewed as supportive, with easing personal consumption expenditure inflation potentially aiding tariff-based cost recovery [4] - Near-term regulatory gaps could pressure results, contributing to the Hold recommendation [4] - The stock's valuation premium versus peers on P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples also supports the Hold recommendation [4]