FICC Research FX Strategy 17 September 2025 FX Views China: How low can the USDCNY fixing go We see a low likelihood for a sharp drop in the USDCNY fixing, barring a DXY collapse. We view the fixing as a coping mechanism to balance the CFETS. DXY has heavy influence on CFETS and USDCNH, but a 'China factor,' which tends to drive divergence between the basket and spot, also affects the DXY. The PBoC has been navigating between rapid declines in the CFETS and its efforts to avoid a plunge in USDCNH. The trigg ...