Core Insights - TransUnion projects steady but tempered growth in credit originations for 2026, with mortgages and unsecured personal loans as key growth drivers in a stabilizing market [1] Lending Categories - Mortgage originations are expected to continue recent gains, with purchase volume rising by 4.0% and refinance activity increasing by 4.2% [2] - Unsecured personal loans are forecasted to grow by 11.2%, marking the third consecutive year of expansion [2] - Credit card originations are anticipated to advance by 2.0%, while auto loan originations may decline by 1.5% [2] Consumer Behavior and Risk Management - Lenders are adopting a cautious approach to growth, utilizing enhanced data and analytics to manage risk and fraud [3] - Consumer demand for credit remains strong across various risk tiers, with potential for acceleration if interest rates decrease more than expected [3] Credit Health Indicators - The Q4 CIIR indicates year-over-year gains in credit card, personal loan, and auto financing originations, with shifts in consumer migration towards higher and lower risk tiers [4] - The median VantageScore decreased by two points to 711, reflecting changes in overall credit health [4] - Bankcard originations surged by 11.7% year-over-year in Q3 2025, driven by both subprime and super-prime segments [4] Delinquency Rates and Balances - Total credit balances increased by 4.2% to $1.15 trillion, with new credit lines expanding by 9.2% [5] - Consumer-level delinquencies of 90+ days past due rose to 2.58%, consistent with 2023 levels [5] - Unsecured personal loan originations reached a record high of 7.2 million in Q3 2025, with balances climbing to $276 billion [5] Subprime and Fintech Trends - Subprime borrowers led the growth in originations, with Fintech lenders increasing their market share to 42% [6] - The 60+ days past due delinquency rate rose to 3.99%, but newer originations are performing better than previous cohorts, especially in the subprime category [6] Mortgage and Auto Financing - Mortgage originations increased by 6.5% year-over-year to 1.34 million in Q3 2025, supported by strong purchase demand and a 25.7% rise in rate-and-term refinances [6] - Home-equity originations rose by 14.3% to 714,000, with both HELOCs and HELOANs showing healthy gains [7] - Auto originations advanced by 6.2% to 6.7 million, despite rising vehicle prices [7] Future Outlook - The 60+ days past due rate reached 1.50%, with used vehicles showing slightly faster deterioration [8] - TransUnion's analysis suggests that 2026 will see continued access to credit for consumers, alongside disciplined underwriting, supporting economic activity in a gradually normalizing environment [8]