Market Performance - Most major averages posted gains for the week, with the S&P 500 up 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 1.5% [2] - Small cap stocks were the second-best performing group, up 0.8% [2] Earnings Season - Earnings are on pace to be up 5.6%, marking the eighth consecutive positive quarter, but this would be the lowest growth since Q4 2023 [3] - A total of 100 companies are scheduled to report earnings, with major tech names like Google and Tesla reporting on Wednesday [3] Tariff Developments - The deadline for tariffs is approaching, with the Trump administration considering blanket tariffs on the EU of 15% or more [4] - European Union envoys are planning to meet to discuss retaliatory measures if no deal is reached before the August 1st deadline [4] Consumer Sentiment - Recent reports on consumer sentiment showed better-than-expected results, indicating consumers feel more positive about the economy [5] - However, there are underlying concerns regarding the types of jobs being created, primarily in healthcare, government, and education, which may not stimulate economic growth [8] Housing Market - New home sales are at their lowest level since the housing crisis, which could be a concerning sign for wealth building in the country [9] - The Federal Reserve's influence on mortgage rates is limited, as these rates are determined by the market [9] Federal Reserve - Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak, and there is significant attention on his future as Fed Chair, with markets seeking reassurance that he will remain until his term ends in 2026 [10] Company Focus - Coca-Cola is set to report earnings, with an expected move of $1.58 for the week [11] - Netflix's response to its recent stock pullback will be closely monitored, along with the upcoming earnings announcements for Google and Tesla [11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "sell signal" triggered by cash levels falling to 3.9% [14][15][86] Core Insights - Investor sentiment is the most bullish since February 2025, with a significant surge in profit optimism and risk appetite over the past three months [2][17] - 59% of investors believe a recession is unlikely, a notable shift from 42% in April, with 65% expecting a soft landing [3][26][27] - The most crowded trade is "short US dollar," with a net 20% overweight on Euro, the highest since January 2005 [5][55][62] Summary by Sections Macro Insights - 42% of investors expect Q2 2025 EPS to beat consensus, while 19% anticipate disappointment [30][36] - AI is perceived to be increasing productivity by 42% of investors [32][37] - Expectations for a global recession have decreased, with only 9% expecting a hard landing [26][28] Policy Insights - The trade war is viewed as the biggest tail risk, with expected final tariff rates on the Rest of the World rising to 14% [4][49][48] - 81% of investors forecast one or two rate cuts by year-end, with only 11% expecting a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [38][44] Asset Allocation - FMS equity allocation improved to a net 2% overweight, while bond allocation remains net 4% underweight [120][121] - Investors are most overweight Eurozone equities, with a net 41% overweight, the highest in four years [63][65] - There has been a significant increase in allocation to tech stocks, with a net 14% overweight, the highest since January 2025 [68][70] Investor Sentiment - The FMS cash level has dropped to 3.9%, indicating a sell signal, with historical median losses following such signals averaging -2% [14][20][86] - Risk appetite has surged, with a net 31% of investors expecting weaker global economic growth, a significant recovery from previous months [23][92] - 68% of investors believe high-quality earnings will outperform low-quality earnings [101][103]