Core Viewpoint - Crude oil and gasoline prices have increased due to geopolitical tensions and a decline in active US oil rigs, which suggests a potential decrease in crude production in the near term [2][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - January WTI crude oil closed up by $0.51 (+0.91%) and January RBOB gasoline closed up by $0.0069 (+0.41%) on Friday [1]. - Crude oil prices are supported by heightened geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Russia, alongside a stock market rally that boosts optimism about energy demand [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Baker Hughes weekly report indicated that active US oil rigs fell to a 4.25-year low, which is expected to lead to lower crude production [2]. - A bearish global supply outlook continues to limit the upside potential for crude prices, with the crude crack spread falling to a 6-month low, discouraging refiners from purchasing crude oil [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of geopolitical tensions, including a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers to and from Venezuela and potential increased sanctions on Russian energy exports, is supportive of crude prices [4]. - Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and tankers have exacerbated fuel shortages in Russia, limiting its crude export capabilities and lowering global oil supplies [6].

Group 1 - Crude oil and gasoline prices are rising due to heightened geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Russia, with President Trump ordering a blockade of sanctioned tankers off Venezuela and the US preparing new sanctions on Russian energy exports [2][3] - The crude crack spread has fallen to a 6-month low, which is discouraging refiners from purchasing crude oil for refining into gasoline and distillates [4] - Reduced crude exports from Russia are supporting crude prices, with shipments falling to 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in early November, the lowest in over three years, due to Ukrainian attacks and new sanctions [5] Group 2 - Crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose by 5.1% week-over-week to 120.23 million barrels, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [4] - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which carries 1.6 million bpd of Kazakhstan's crude exports, was forced to close due to pipeline damage, further impacting global crude supply [5] - New US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies and infrastructure have also contributed to the reduction in Russian oil exports [5]