Core Viewpoint - The cruise industry is experiencing a strong post-pandemic recovery, with companies like Carnival and Viking Holdings showing impressive financial performance and growth potential [1][2][4]. Industry Performance - The cruise industry has benefited from a surge in travel demand, often referred to as "revenge" travel, and has shown resilience despite inflation and rising interest rates [2]. - Cruising is considered a more cost-effective travel option compared to hotels, which have become more expensive [2]. Company Performance - Carnival reported a 9.5% revenue growth in the last quarter, with adjusted earnings per share more than tripling [4]. - Viking achieved a revenue growth of 24.9% in its first quarter, driven by a 7.1% increase in net yields and a 14.9% increase in capacity [7]. - As of the second quarter of 2025, Carnival's EBITDA per available lower berth day (ALBD) grew by 52%, and its return on invested capital (ROIC) more than doubled to 12.5% [6]. Debt and Financial Health - Carnival's debt-to-EBITDA ratio is 3.7 times, while Viking's is significantly lower at 2.0 times, indicating a better debt position for Viking [10]. - Viking's management has forecasted strong future performance, with 37% of its capacity already booked for 2026 [8]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Viking's stock has appreciated 150% since its IPO in June, while Carnival's stock has increased nearly 23% this year [13]. - Viking's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 24.5, while Carnival's is lower at 15.3, suggesting that Carnival may be undervalued [14]. - Despite Carnival's higher debt load, its forward enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV-to-EBITDA) ratio is 8.8, which is lower than Viking's [14]. Investment Considerations - Viking may appeal to growth-oriented investors due to its higher growth rate and lower risk profile, while Carnival may attract value investors looking for a lower valuation and potential for rerating as it pays down debt [18].

Core Viewpoint - The cruise industry is facing mixed signals, with Carnival's performance uncertain compared to competitors Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings [1][3][12] Group 1: Industry Performance - Royal Caribbean raised its guidance in its latest earnings report, while Norwegian reduced its guidance on net yield growth, indicating potential challenges in revenue generation [2] - Carnival holds a significant market share, with approximately 42% of all cruise passengers sailing on its ships, which positions it as an industry leader [7] - Cabin availability has been limited, with Carnival booking 103% of its capacity in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, allowing it to command higher prices [8] Group 2: Financial Health - Carnival has approximately $27 billion in total debt, a significant burden given its book value of $9.2 billion, which impacts its ability to service and pay down debt [4] - The company has made progress in debt reduction, paying off over $3 billion in fiscal 2024 and another $500 million in the first quarter, indicating it can manage current debt without refinancing [10] - In the fiscal first quarter, Carnival reported revenue of $5.8 billion, a 7% increase year-over-year, despite a quarterly loss of $78 million, suggesting that the loss may be temporary [9] Group 3: Future Outlook - Carnival plans to launch new ships, Festivale in 2027 and Tropicale in 2028, which could enhance its revenue if demand remains strong [5] - The company may need to slow its expansion if economic conditions force it to lower prices to attract customers, but it has demonstrated resilience in maintaining market leadership and expanding its fleet [13] - The stock has increased by around 20% over the last year but has fallen about 35% since late January, resulting in a price-to-earnings ratio of 12, the lowest since returning to profitability [11]