Core Insights - The Bitcoin and broader crypto market have shown signs of activity recently, but liquidity conditions remain weak, raising concerns about market stability [1][4]. Market Activity - Glassnode's data indicates that Bitcoin spot trading volume and aggregate altcoin spot volume have reached their lowest levels since November 2023, despite price increases, suggesting fragile demand and limited market participation [2][3]. - Healthy price increases are typically supported by rising trading volumes; however, current spot volumes have decreased to year-long lows, indicating a lack of broad participation in the market [3]. Liquidity Concerns - A previous CoinDesk analysis highlighted that liquidity across centralized exchanges, including Bitcoin and Ether market depth, has not fully recovered since the October crash, resulting in a thinner baseline of liquidity [4]. - The October event led to the liquidation of $19 billion in leveraged positions, which not only unwound overextended bets but also altered the market's structure, causing a sustained reduction in resting liquidity [5]. Current Market Status - Bitcoin is currently trading at $93,500, reflecting a 7.5% increase since January 1, but this price movement has occurred on minimal trading volume, raising warning signs for traders [6].

Group 1: Market Liquidity Trends - The total global stablecoin market cap has decreased from $309 billion to $305 billion in November 2025, indicating the first contraction after two years of growth, suggesting weaker liquidity ahead [1] - USDT supply is declining, which is a common early indicator of capital flowing out of risk assets, historically leading to downward pressure on Bitcoin [2] - ETF inflows and Digital Asset Trusts (DATs) are also showing signs of fatigue, confirming a broad-based cooling of liquidity across the market [3] Group 2: Bitcoin Halving and Market Dynamics - The traditional Bitcoin Halving model, which has historically triggered major price rallies, may no longer be valid as liquidity expansion and halving are not aligning in 2025 [6] - Analysts suggest that global liquidity, influenced by the Federal Reserve and ETF flows, is the real market catalyst, potentially extending the current cycle into 2026 [6] - Adez Research argues that large market makers may be promoting a liquidity narrative that lacks real data support, indicating a disconnect between narrative and actual market conditions [7] Group 3: Historical Analysis and Correlation - An analysis of Bitcoin's historical cycles since 2013 shows no consistent correlation between changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and Bitcoin's performance, undermining the Liquidity Bitcoin Halving correlation thesis [8]