Bitcoin and the wider crypto market has started to wake up recently, but underlying liquidity conditions appear strikingly weak, according to onchain analytics firm Glassnode — a dynamic that echoes concerns raised in a CoinDesk analysis in November on hollow crypto market liquidity following the October crash. Glassnode’s latest data shows that both bitcoin spot trading volume and aggregate altcoin spot volume have sunk to their lowest readings since November 2023, even as prices have climbed — a diverg ...

Group 1: Market Liquidity Trends - The total global stablecoin market cap has decreased from $309 billion to $305 billion in November 2025, indicating the first contraction after two years of growth, suggesting weaker liquidity ahead [1] - USDT supply is declining, which is a common early indicator of capital flowing out of risk assets, historically leading to downward pressure on Bitcoin [2] - ETF inflows and Digital Asset Trusts (DATs) are also showing signs of fatigue, confirming a broad-based cooling of liquidity across the market [3] Group 2: Bitcoin Halving and Market Dynamics - The traditional Bitcoin Halving model, which has historically triggered major price rallies, may no longer be valid as liquidity expansion and halving are not aligning in 2025 [6] - Analysts suggest that global liquidity, influenced by the Federal Reserve and ETF flows, is the real market catalyst, potentially extending the current cycle into 2026 [6] - Adez Research argues that large market makers may be promoting a liquidity narrative that lacks real data support, indicating a disconnect between narrative and actual market conditions [7] Group 3: Historical Analysis and Correlation - An analysis of Bitcoin's historical cycles since 2013 shows no consistent correlation between changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and Bitcoin's performance, undermining the Liquidity Bitcoin Halving correlation thesis [8]