Core Insights - Ripple is set to unlock 1 billion XRP from escrow on January 1, 2026, which at the current price of $1.88 represents approximately $1.9 billion [2] - Historical data suggests that the market impact of such unlocks may be limited due to Ripple's managed supply mechanism, which has been in place since 2017 [3][4] - In December 2025, about 70% of the unlocked XRP was returned to escrow, indicating that only 300-400 million XRP may be liquid following the January unlock [5] XRP Price Dynamics - XRP is currently facing sell pressure, with a potential risk of a 41% price crash, although structural demand remains steady, as evidenced by inflows into US spot XRP ETFs [5] - XRP ETFs have seen over 30 consecutive days of inflows, including $15.55 million on December 30, raising total ETF-held assets to $1.27 billion [6] - The decline in XRP held on exchanges from approximately 4 billion to under 1.5 billion over the past year suggests a tightening of the liquid supply [7]